modern AI models are beginning to solve problems that sit beyond the frontier of existing human knowledge
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But one reason that I think it quite underrated, and also which reveals the canyon walls against which the river of AI progress will only slowly chip away at, is that it is not enough for a domain to be verifiable. It also has to be very grindable—in the sense that you can run lots of parallel rollouts against a deterministic and replayable simulator.
Dwarkesh Patel
The care and intentionality is beside the point, and our confidence in such vigilance probably works against us in the long run. 'The teams using AI most carefully are the ones losing the ability to tell a good option from a merely safe one. The malformation doesn't skip the diligent. It recruits them.'
Michael
The most interesting idea is that countries become great powers due to their mastery of the most important technologies of the day — gunpowder, sailing ships, steam power, mass production, steel, the combustion engine, industrial chemicals, electricity, airplanes, and so on. It's also possible to imagine that leading nations fall behind due to technological disruption. Britain's industrial revolution made mercantile trade less pivotal as a source of national wealth, so the Netherlands fell behind.
Noah Smith