Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Alex Sacerdote - How to Invest Through Technology Cycles - [Invest Like the Best, EP.477]

The companies that tend to win in technology are the ones that are able to identify the inflection point on the S-curve early enough to make a big bet, but not so early that they run out of capital before the market develops. The penalty for being too early is often indistinguishable from being wrong.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Alex Sacerdote - How to Invest Through Technology Cycles - [Invest Like the Best, EP.477]

The way I think about it is that the most dangerous time to own a technology business is when it's currently executing well but the next curve is about to start. Because what happens is all your best people, all your resources, all your management attention is focused on scaling and perfecting the current curve, and the new curve looks tiny and unimportant by comparison.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Alex Sacerdote - How to Invest Through Technology Cycles - [Invest Like the Best, EP.477]

The other thing I'd say about AI is it has this strange property where the more you use it, the more you realize how transformative it's going to be. Most technologies, the more you use them, the more you understand their limitations. AI is almost the opposite — the more deeply you engage with it, the more you realize the ceiling is higher than you thought.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Alex Sacerdote - How to Invest Through Technology Cycles - [Invest Like the Best, EP.477]

The great irony of technology investing is that the stocks that look the most expensive at the beginning of an S-curve are often the cheapest, and the stocks that look the cheapest at the end of an S-curve are often the most expensive.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Alex Sacerdote - How to Invest Through Technology Cycles - [Invest Like the Best, EP.477]

The S-curve is a very well-known concept in technology investing, but what's less appreciated is that the most dangerous moment is often at the top of the S-curve, when a technology looks the most dominant and the most entrenched. That's precisely when the next S-curve is being born underneath it, and the incumbents are most blind to the threat.

TED

The Invisible Infrastructure in the Sky | Adam Bry | TED

Drones enable us to have a complete digital picture of the grid to prevent this kind of thing from happening. And if it does happen, we can know about it sooner and faster and mitigate the response.

Diet TBPN

Bezos' Prometheus Raises $12B, America Inc. Moves to Texas, Trucking Rebounds | Diet TBPN

Bezos argued that if AI makes it cheaper, faster, and easier to invent things, employment will ultimately rise because even though you're shrinking the number of people needed by 10x, the technology will create more than 10x as many opportunities.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Alex Sacerdote - How to Invest Through Technology Cycles - [Invest Like the Best, EP.477]

The exciting part of being in technology investing is that you have these waves of innovation that create extraordinary opportunities for value creation and also value destruction. And the companies that are able to ride multiple waves are extraordinary compounders over time, but it's actually quite rare.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Alex Sacerdote - How to Invest Through Technology Cycles - [Invest Like the Best, EP.477]

The failure mode that I've seen in technology investing over my career is people who are trained on a particular way that technology markets work, and they can't break free of it. They have a very successful decade, typically, where they nail one cycle, and then the next cycle they try to map the old framework onto the new one, and that's where the mistakes get made.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Alex Sacerdote - How to Invest Through Technology Cycles - [Invest Like the Best, EP.477]

The best investors in technology don't just understand the technology itself — they understand where they are on the S-curve. Most people anchor to the present and extrapolate linearly, but the whole game is recognizing when adoption is about to inflect and when it's about to plateau.

TBPN

Siri AI, Fable Launch, China Wakes Up, Rivian CEO Joins, IPO Filings, Learn to Weld?

You have this bookending of Siri on both sides of Tim Cook's career where sort of nothing happened in an interesting way, you know, but it but the stock did fantastically well. his Tim Cook created an immense amount of value, but it was this lighter cheaper, faster, stronger.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Alex Sacerdote - How to Invest Through Technology Cycles - [Invest Like the Best, EP.477]

The mistake most investors make is they think about technology investing as stock picking, when really it's about cycle recognition. If you can identify where you are on the S-curve of a technology's adoption, the individual stock selection becomes almost secondary to being in the right part of the cycle at the right time.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Alex Sacerdote - How to Invest Through Technology Cycles - [Invest Like the Best, EP.477]

The mistake most investors make is they think about technology investing as a static exercise — you find a great company, you understand its competitive position, you underwrite the earnings, and you hold it. But technology is defined by change, and so you need to have a framework for thinking about how industries evolve over time.

The a16z Show

AI, Growth, and the Future of Healthcare | Anish Acharya & Sachin Jain

Acharya argues that artificial intelligence is not simply another productivity tool, but a fundamentally new technology capable of performing work on behalf of people and organizations.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Dara Khosrowshahi - Uber's Bet on AVs, AI, and Building a Super-App - [Invest Like the Best, EP.476]

The best technology companies, they don't think product first. They think about what problem they're solving for whom, and they think about the network. If you solve a problem for a network of people, then the more people who have that problem and join your network, the more powerful your solution becomes.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Alex Sacerdote - How to Invest Through Technology Cycles - [Invest Like the Best, EP.477]

The business of investing in technology is really the business of identifying where you are on the S-curve, because most of the money that's ever been made in technology investing has been made by people who correctly identified that they were in the early innings of a very long S-curve, and most of the money that's ever been lost has been by people who thought they were in the early innings when they were actually in the late innings.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Alex Sacerdote - How to Invest Through Technology Cycles - [Invest Like the Best, EP.477]

The other thing about platform transitions is that they reset competitive advantage. So the incumbents that have accumulated distribution and integration and switching costs — those advantages largely reset with platform transitions. That's what makes them so valuable for investors; new winners can emerge from what looks like chaos.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Dara Khosrowshahi - Uber's Bet on AVs, AI, and Building a Super-App - [Invest Like the Best, EP.476]

The most dangerous thing that could happen to Uber is if one of the AV companies actually decided that they wanted to be a ride-sharing company, that they wanted to own the consumer relationship and own the driver relationship. Because then you'd have a competitor with a superior technology and they decided to go vertical.

The Prof G Pod

Scott Galloway: Stop Demonizing Billionaires and Start Taxing them | Office Hours

AI's capex boom is the second largest share of use GDP in history. bigger than the railroads, second only to the I think the Louisiana purchase, and there's the build out of the electrical grid, the highway system, uh the Apollo program, although that wasn't very big, and then the internet and sort of the telco infrastructure.

Diet TBPN

Palantir's AIPCon 10, Ramp Hits $44B, 60 Minutes Eyes Rogan | Diet TBPN

You don't need to get to AGI super intelligence god you can just have a really powerful tool that creates a new problem

TED

Why You Should Be a Techno-Skeptic | Jonathan Haidt | TED

Which means that puberty is the worst possible time for a human being to be on social media. For our ultra-social species, that rewiring should be guided by huge amounts of social interaction in the real world, not by TikTok's algorithm.

Pivot

Pope Leo Issues AI Warning to Silicon Valley and Beyond | Pivot

Here's a technology that is potentially more dangerous than nuclear weapons. We didn't let Oppenheimer start a company and start selling bombs to China.

TBPN

Where Brad Gerstner Is Investing Billions

Inference isn't going to 100x. It's not going to thousandx. It's going to 1 billionx because agents are going to be talking to agents.

The a16z Show

The Plan to Make American Crime Obsolete

the next decade will fundamentally change the skills required to be a police officer in America

China Decode

The HIGH-STAKES Trump-Xi Summit Preview | China Decode

Both sides now openly acknowledge that the US and China no longer see trade and technology as economic issues alone. They see them increasingly as national security weapons.

TED

I Let DaddyGPT Parent My Kids. Here’s What I Learned | Stephen Remedios | TED

But daddy, DaddyGPT is never busy. And in that moment, I realized I had just been outparented by my own algorithm.

The Business of Tech

The Business of Tech: AI is eating market research

what if you could get the same quality of insight that used to take six weeks and tens of thousands of dollars overnight for a fraction of the cost.

The Business of Tech

The Business of Tech: AI is eating market research

This is a story about what happens when you combine real human data with AI, and why that combination might just be the future of how companies make their most important decisions.

TBPN

AI Profits Surge, $70B Capex Surge Raises Investor Concerns, Automated Skin Exams | Diet TBPN

Ideally like every seat would have a co-pilot alongside of it. That I mean that's the idea, right? Uh and so the question is how quickly can they get that 20 million co-pilot seats up to 200 million 400 million.

Decoder with Nilay Patel

THE PEOPLE DO NOT YEARN FOR AUTOMATION

Software brain is powerful stuff. It's a way of thinking that basically created our modern world. But software thinking has also been turbocharged by AI in a way that I think helps explain the enormous gap between how excited the tech industry is about the technology and how regular people are growing to dislike it more and more over time.

TBPN

SpaceX-Cursor Deal, ChatGPT Images 2.0, Fake Bear Scam | Diet TBPN

The thing that started as like Elon sort of being like I want to buy Twitter is now like a Neol with a massive supercomputer data center and a coding agent and code review for the age of AI because don't forget they own graphite now or potentially will uh and and and a social the space review

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Scott Nolan - SpaceX, Founders Fund, and Rebuilding American Uranium Enrichment - [Invest Like the Best, EP.467]

Scott believes enrichment is the single bottleneck to a nuclear future, and that the window to solve it is narrow.

TED Radio Hour

Could AI help us, not replace us?

The purpose of AI is to empower humans with machine intelligence. As machines get smarter, we get smarter. I call this humanistic AI, artificial intelligence designed to meet human needs by collaborating and augmenting people.

TED Radio Hour

Could AI help us, not replace us?

I think the purpose of AI is to empower humans with machine intelligence. As machines get smarter, we get smarter.

TED

The Story You’re Not Hearing About AI Data Centers | Ayșe Coskun | TED

The very technology driving this unforeseen demand is also probably the only thing smart enough to tame it.

Decoder with Nilay Patel

Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins wants data centers in space

But without Cisco's actual routers and switches and silicon — and the software to make those things work — there's no internet, no cloud, and no AI.

TED Radio Hour

Could AI help us, not replace us?

The purpose of AI is to empower humans with machine intelligence. As machines get smarter, we get smarter.

Freakonomics Radio

668. Do Taylor Swift and Bad Bunny Have Blood on Their Hands?

We've engineered a world where the most distracting device ever made is also the one we use to listen to music in the car.

TBPN

Arm’s $15B Chip Bet, Sanders & AOC vs Datacenters, Meta & YouTube Lose Trial | Diet TBPN

You got to be rich in both camps. And a lot of companies are jumping in to fill this gap. Agents, and a lot of this is because of agents. Agents need CPUs.

TED

3 Habits to Practice Curiosity — and Escape Your Phone | Nayeema Raza | TED

When we are together physically, we are each alone on our phones. But when we're in our phones, that's when we can be together.

TBPN

Inside Bezos’ Plan to Rebuild U.S. Manufacturing With AI

As manufacturing gets cheaper like the tools that you use, the cars that you drive, the washing machine in your home, uh the tires on your cars, uh all these different things get better, not just cheaper, but actually unlock new capabilities and new things that people people enjoy.

TED

How to Make Your Idea Unforgettable | London | TED Idea Search

Now with artificial intelligence if we do not fix this silence now machines will just perpetuate this for the future.

Compound Interest

The Investor Behind a16z’s America First Push On Dealing With the Pentagon ‘Where Bits Meet Atoms’

These are companies that sit at the intersection of very very advanced software uh as well as hardware. So it's where atoms meets bits um which historically has not been I would say in vogue for the venture capital uh industry certainly over the last 25 years.

The Business of Tech

Too small is a tech myth – Mehran Gul on NZ’s real advantage

if one or two places can change their relative importance in technology within such a short time span, you know, five to seven years, and it's not just China, you know Canada, for instance, the outsize role that it has played in AI research.

TBPN

AI Researcher Uses GPT to Save His Dog From Cancer

I think it would be helpful for the industry to refocus some messaging on not AI is going to cure cancer, but humanity is going to use AI to cure cancer and do a number of other things, right?

TBPN

FULL INTERVIEW: Uber Founder Travis Kalanick is Back with a New AI Startup

If you do, you do to the kitchen what Uber did to the car. So I've been doing that since 2018.

Freakonomics Radio

667. Here’s Why You Are Constantly Fighting Off Scammers

A ruthless (and ruthlessly efficient) industry is using digital tools to supercharge one of the world's oldest behaviors.

TBPN

Oracle Rips, Ellison's Tech-First Vision, Fertilizer Crisis | Apoorv Agrawal, Owen Jennings, Amjad Masad, Shardul Shah, Mike Blue, Brian Taylor, Ivan Soto-Wright

compute is still growing exponentially. But AI adoption curves often look like S curves.

The Business of Tech

AI’s Kiwi gatekeeper inside Microsoft

if this can transform how architects are imagining buildings, imagine how we can transform every industry.