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The economic growth we've had in the last 200 years is this extraordinary exception in human history. And yet, I think we're about to look back on that and think it was just this tiny little warmup. I think we can do the equivalent of that again in a very small number of years.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
7h ago

I think of computers a little like grandparents, actually. You wouldn't use your grandmother, right? But your grandmother can make your life easier if you use her properly.

2d ago
Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Gavin Baker - AI Market Jitters - [Invest Like the Best, EP.485]

The most underappreciated thing about AI is that it's deflationary. Every single time in history when something has caused the kind of growth in demand that AI is causing, it has been because it is deflationary — because it lowers the cost of doing something that people want to do.

2d ago

I think the most important thing that I have come to believe is that intelligence is the underlying commodity of the universe. And if we can have a much more abundant supply of intelligence, both human and artificial, we can solve problems that have stumped humanity for a long time.

3d ago

The thing that I keep coming back to is that intelligence and energy are the two inputs to wealth creation, and if we can make those cheap and abundant, the world will be able to solve the problems that have plagued us for millennia. And I think that within a not crazy long period of time, we will look back at the current time the way we look back at other transitions in history and think this is when things really changed.

4d ago

I think most people radically underestimate what's going to be possible. Not just in terms of technology, but if we can actually get these systems to work and we can actually get the abundance they could provide, the degree to which every single person on the planet could have a quality of life better than the wealthiest people today is really hard to get your head around.

4d ago
Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Gavin Baker - AI Market Jitters - [Invest Like the Best, EP.485]

The most important thing I would say is that I think AI is the most important technology in human history, bar none. More important than the printing press, more important than electricity, more important than the internet. The reason I say that is it's the first technology that can potentially augment or replace human cognitive labor at scale.

4d ago
Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Gavin Baker - AI Market Jitters - [Invest Like the Best, EP.485]

The history of technology tells us that the companies that win in a new technology paradigm are often not the companies that won in the previous technology paradigm. And I think that's a really important thing to keep in mind when you're thinking about AI.

6d ago

I think we may be approaching a moment where many instances of AI are out running experiments, doing the work of scientists, and humanity could potentially compress decades of scientific progress into just a few years. We could run experiments to defeat diseases that have plagued us for millennia, independently develop and test solutions to mental health crises, and actively drive economic growth in a way that could lift billions out of poverty.

6d ago

The last 100 years of scientific and technological progress have been incredible, but I think the next 20 years will be the most transformative in human history. I believe we are on the verge of creating AI systems that will compress decades of scientific progress into just a few years, potentially solving diseases that have plagued humanity for millennia, defeating mental health crises, and creating economic growth in a way that could lift billions out of poverty.

1w ago

I think we're at the beginning of an era where we're going to be able to just have much more. And I think that the thing that I would most want people to understand is that technological progress is the main driver of that, and that we should think about how to accelerate it rather than slow it down, because the compounding effects of even slightly faster scientific progress are enormous.

1w ago

I think we will look back on this moment as the single most important turning point in the history of human civilization. Truly, not hyperbole. The transition from a world where there was a fixed amount of intelligence and energy to a world where both of those are effectively unlimited is so profound that I don't think we are able to fully conceptualize what it will mean.

1w ago

Technology is more like food than anything. We have our own media metabolisms. Every child is different. Every family is different. We must learn how to consume technology in a way that is going to support us rather than hurt us, because unfortunately, the systems are not built for us to thrive.

1w ago

I think AI is going to be the most transformative technology in human history, and I think it will compress potentially 100 years of scientific progress into the next decade or so. I think it will defeat diseases that have plagued us forever. I think it will help lift many people out of poverty. I think it will dramatically increase the quality of life for most people on Earth.

1w ago

I think we're at an inflection point where AI will be doing a lot of the work, and the jobs of the future will be to figure out what we should build, what direction to point the AI, and how to verify that the AI has done the right thing. The people who do that best will capture an enormous amount of value.

1w ago

I think we're at an early moment in what will eventually be seen as a clear inflection point in history — the moment when AI started to do real scientific research autonomously and the pace of scientific progress started to change in a way that will just seem unimaginable to us now.

1w ago

We're investing billions into making sure we put the very best AI tools onto every screen on the planet. But with all this technology at our fingertips, why aren't we investing just as urgently into making sure every student can connect with the people who will change their life?

1w ago

The thing that I keep coming back to is that intelligence and energy are the two inputs to wealth creation. And we have, in AI, a way to potentially radically expand the amount of intelligence available to humanity. If we can do that, and if we can find a way to get cheap, abundant energy, I think the world looks totally different in 20 to 30 years than most people are imagining.

1w ago

The best business model in history is IP theft. A close second in terms of a pricing mechanism is 80% of the market leader for half the price. And DeepSeek and these Chinese open-way models claim they're 90% of the market leader for a third of the price.

2w ago

The big story here is not necessarily Chinese models versus American models. I think the big story here is open source versus closed source. The big labs, they don't have anything that the open source labs don't have.

2w ago

Search volumes are declining as legacy searches being increasingly cannibalized by non-monetized LLM queries. Google's response: manufacture revenue growth via short-sighted, highly extractive customer hostile tactics, i.e. charge advertisers more for lower quality clicks, including clicks they do not want and explicitly do not approve Google to charge them for.

2w ago
The Business of Tech
FTN Motion's electric ride

we resisted the temptation to bolt on apps and gimmicks, choosing instead to keep the tech invisible and the ride experience from and center.

2w ago

There's actually been startling progress in reinventing the fundamental nature of the car itself — something the industry calls the 'software-defined vehicle,' controlled by just a handful of powerful computers instead of dozens or even hundreds of independent electronic control units, or ECUs.

3w ago

The M1 chip in a new Mac or iPad Pro is made using a 5nm process, but a lot of the chips in cars are made using a 55nm or even 90nm process, and as demand has skyrocketed, the factories using that older tech just can't keep up.

1mo ago

The chips in cars are made using much older technologies: the M1 chip in a new Mac or iPad Pro is made using a 5nm process, but a lot of the chips in cars are made using a 55nm or even 90nm process, and as demand has skyrocketed, the factories using that older tech just can't keep up.

1mo ago

The stories that you and I are told repeatedly every day about teenagers today, that they are lost, that they are worse off than ever, that somehow smartphones and social media have destroyed them and their brains, it doesn't match the data. And it doesn't match what they tell us.

1mo ago

The M1 chip in a new Mac or iPad Pro is made using a 5nm process, but a lot of the chips in cars are made using a 55nm or even 90nm process, and as demand has skyrocketed, the factories using that older tech just can't keep up. As more and more things turn into computers, the more problems across the business landscape look like the problems of the computer industry.

1mo ago

The thing that I've learned over time is that the most important question is not 'is this technology real?' but rather 'what is the rate of improvement, and how does that rate of improvement compare to what the market is pricing in?' Because technologies that are real can still be terrible investments if the market has already priced in a lot of the improvement.

1mo ago

The biggest mistake investors make is that they think about technology adoption as binary — it either works or it doesn't. But the more important question is where you are on the S-curve, because the returns are radically different depending on whether you're investing at the beginning, the middle, or the end of that S-curve.

1mo ago

The companies that matter most are the ones that can actually translate technological capability into economic value, and that translation is much harder than it looks. Most technology waves produce enormous value for society but relatively little for investors, because competition drives returns to zero faster than most people expect.

1mo ago

Now sports fans at the tip of their fingers through their phones can bet on pretty much anything as it relates to professional sports, college sports, and has driven a lot of money into the sports industry. It has changed the way sports is broadcasted, the way we watch it, and ultimately how fans behave.

1mo ago

The companies that tend to win in technology are the ones that are able to identify the inflection point on the S-curve early enough to make a big bet, but not so early that they run out of capital before the market develops. The penalty for being too early is often indistinguishable from being wrong.

1mo ago

The way I think about it is that the most dangerous time to own a technology business is when it's currently executing well but the next curve is about to start. Because what happens is all your best people, all your resources, all your management attention is focused on scaling and perfecting the current curve, and the new curve looks tiny and unimportant by comparison.

1mo ago

The other thing I'd say about AI is it has this strange property where the more you use it, the more you realize how transformative it's going to be. Most technologies, the more you use them, the more you understand their limitations. AI is almost the opposite — the more deeply you engage with it, the more you realize the ceiling is higher than you thought.

1mo ago

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