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what it's like to raise kids who will grow up never knowing a world without abundant intelligence

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
16h ago

The economic system of the world is roughly a zero-sum battle for existing resources, and the story of the next hundred years is making the transition to a world where there's enough for everyone and we're no longer fighting each other for pieces of a very slowly growing pie. I think there's a chance that AI and cheap energy together create a qualitatively different world where we have enough resources that it's not a zero-sum game anymore.

2d ago

The thing that I keep coming back to is that intelligence and energy are the two inputs to wealth creation. And for most of human history, we've had a very fixed amount of each. But if we can take the cap off of intelligence — if we can have, you know, billions of agents running around solving problems — the potential upside here is just staggering.

3d ago

I think we're at an inflection point where AI will be doing a lot of the work, and the jobs of the future will be to figure out what we should build, what direction to point the AI, and how to verify that the AI has done the right thing. The people who do that best will capture an enormous amount of value.

3d ago

I think we're at an early moment in what will eventually be seen as a clear inflection point in history — the moment when AI started to do real scientific research autonomously and the pace of scientific progress started to change in a way that will just seem unimaginable to us now.

3d ago

We're investing billions into making sure we put the very best AI tools onto every screen on the planet. But with all this technology at our fingertips, why aren't we investing just as urgently into making sure every student can connect with the people who will change their life?

4d ago

The thing I try to remind myself is that if you think about what's happened in the last 100 years — where people live, the nature of work, what life expectancy is — all of the things that we would have said to be true in 1925 would be wrong. And I think we will see more change in the next 10 years than we saw in the previous 100.

5d ago

AI is making knowledge more accessible, more personalized, and more intuitive than we ever thought possible. But ask any student what has changed their life the most, and they won't tell you about a technology. They'll tell you about a person.

5d ago

The US is entering a period where natural gas demand is set to explode — driven by AI data centers, LNG export terminals, and industrial reshoring — but the pipeline infrastructure to move that gas simply hasn't been built. The bottleneck isn't the gas itself; it's the ability to get it from where it's produced to where it's needed.

6d ago

The best business model in history is IP theft. A close second in terms of a pricing mechanism is 80% of the market leader for half the price. And DeepSeek and these Chinese open-way models claim they're 90% of the market leader for a third of the price.

1w ago

We are raising a generation of children who are growing up with AI and smart toys, and they tend to see these devices not as virtual assistants or technology, but as friends, distinct beings with a mind, a will and a soul.

1w ago

The big story here is not necessarily Chinese models versus American models. I think the big story here is open source versus closed source. The big labs, they don't have anything that the open source labs don't have.

1w ago

What I believe is that driverless cars today and lots of automated systems look very much like NLP systems in the 2010s. They are these very complex very handtuned systems. They're intelligent but they're intelligent in sort of isolated ways and that those systems hold back what these technologies can do.

1w ago

Apple may have redefined patent law around 3G and 4G licensing, but fundamentally, it did not actually succeed in stopping its competitors with intellectual property lawsuits. So, you go from copyright to patent and now trade secrets, which is the third big intellectual property, and Apple's doing it again with OpenAI. My big question is whether OpenAI can just pay the money the way that Microsoft and Samsung were able to just pay the money.

1w ago

These companies are essentially ingesting the entirety of the world's written work. They are then strip mining it and selling it back to the people. And they've done this without the consent or compensation of the people whose work they're borrowing or stealing. And then they strip mine it and sell it back to the people who are about to be laid off because of what AI is doing. That's just not a great narrative.

1w ago

There's actually been startling progress in reinventing the fundamental nature of the car itself — something the industry calls the 'software-defined vehicle,' controlled by just a handful of powerful computers instead of dozens or even hundreds of independent electronic control units, or ECUs.

2w ago

The thing that's so special about transformers is they can be trained end to end with gradient descent. You don't have to come up with the algorithm yourself. You just show the network examples of inputs and outputs and it figures out the algorithm. And because the algorithm is learned rather than programmed, it can be much more sophisticated than anything a human could come up with.

3w ago

By summer of 2026, it will be as though the digital world is going through some kind of fast evolution with some parts of it emitting a huge amount of heat and light and moving with counterintuitive speed relative to everything else. Great fortunes will be won and lost here and the powerful engines of our silicon creation will be put to work further accelerating this economy and further changing things.

3w ago

The thing that I find most interesting about Etched is that they're making a bet that transformers are not going away. And the reason that's a interesting bet is that every other chip company has to hedge. Nvidia has to build a chip that runs all possible AI models, because they don't know what's going to win. Etched is saying transformers have won, and we're going to build a chip that only runs transformers, and by doing that, we can be so much faster and cheaper that it doesn't matter if we don't run other things.

3w ago

Very notable that the first major layoff from a major company just admits that the business is not healthy and doesn't blame it on AI. We have not seen a layoff of this scale that wasn't at least partially credited to like the productivity increases that we're seeing from AI.

3w ago

Whenever this conversation comes about, the promise of AI, I always go back to the promise of programmatic. I go back to that because I feel like the AI story is the new programmatic story, with the promise of everything just being absolutely automated, and that absolutely did not happen.

4w ago

The thing that's really interesting about transformers is that the attention mechanism, which is the key innovation, is actually a fixed algorithm. It's not like the weights change the algorithm; the weights just parameterize the algorithm. And so if you know that the algorithm is fixed, you can build hardware that's specifically designed to run that algorithm as fast as possible.

4w ago

The thing that's special about transformers is the attention mechanism, and the attention mechanism has this property that every single token has to interact with every other token. The amount of computation required scales with the square of the sequence length. So as you try to process longer and longer contexts, it gets quadratically more expensive.

4w ago

Whenever this conversation comes about, the promise of AI, I always go back to the promise of programmatic. How many of you remember when programmatic was a thing? And that was a time when it was all just going to magically happen and it magically still needs people, still has the nuance of brands and the marketplace and all of the things that we do to define our partnerships and what are going to be game changers. I go back to that because I feel like the AI story is the new programmatic story, with the promise of everything just being absolutely automated, and that absolutely did not happen.

4w ago

Whenever this conversation comes about, the promise of AI, I always go back to the promise of programmatic. How many of you remember when programmatic was a thing? No more people, it was all going to magically— [...] I go back to that because I feel like the AI story is the new programmatic story, with the promise of everything just being absolutely automated, and that absolutely did not happen.

4w ago

if you give every clinician an AI partner that handles the documentation, form filling, evidence search, and routine follow up communication, you effectively add another pair of hands to every consult without hiring another doctor.

4w ago

AI is best understood not as a replacement for artists, but as another creative tool, one that expands what's possible while making taste, curiosity, and individual perspective even more valuable.

4w ago

Odyssey AI is not trying to build yet another large language model. Instead, Jeff Hawk, the company's co founder, is focused on world models AI systems that learn from site and sound to understand and simulate how the real world works over time, predicting what happens next and letting us interact with those simulated futures.

1mo ago

It was basically sort of thought to be career suicide. Like of course we know AI doesn't work. You know, we tried it in the 90s, places like MIT and it was a dead end. You know, and that was the prevailing view. But we just felt the small band of us felt that that actually with the right ideas and using learning systems, reinforcement learning and betting on neural networks that a lot of fast progress could be made.

1mo ago

world models AI systems that learn from site and sound to understand and simulate how the real world works over time, predicting what happens next and letting us interact with those simulated futures.

1mo ago

I coined the term Google Zero a few years ago — that's the idea that Google traffic to websites would fall to zero as the company answered more and more queries directly on the search results page. That's gone from an idea Sundar batted away in previous interviews to something the entire media industry is grappling with.

1mo ago
The Business of Tech
AI vs public sector jobs

it's not just a story about cutting people, Brandon argues, we're framing this moment the wrong way as a blunt job cuts exercise, rather than a once in a generation chance to improve citizen services, grow new export businesses out of public sector expertise, and build a proper New Zealand digital service to set standards and avoid another decade of technical debt.

1mo ago

The thing that's really interesting about the AI moment is that, unlike prior technology cycles, the hyperscalers themselves are the ones funding the build-out. So you don't have the same risk of a capital cycle bust that you had in, say, the fiber buildout of the late '90s, where it was funded by debt and then the whole thing collapsed.

1mo ago

China has demonstrated a willingness to forego money in the name of the common good. In the name of protecting workers and protecting labor. And so even if China is more structurally exposed to AI, even if that is the case, my assumption is that the Chinese government will bend the economy to its will in order to protect Chinese workers. What I know about America is that the total opposite is true.

1mo ago

AI is not just a software story but a demand shock that will ripple through energy, manufacturing, construction, and global supply chains.

1mo ago

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