Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Alex Sacerdote - How to Invest Through Technology Cycles - [Invest Like the Best, EP.477]

The mistake most investors make is they think about technology investing as stock picking, when really it's about cycle recognition. If you can identify where you are on the S-curve of a technology's adoption, the individual stock selection becomes almost secondary to being in the right part of the cycle at the right time.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Alex Sacerdote - How to Invest Through Technology Cycles - [Invest Like the Best, EP.477]

The business of investing in technology is really the business of identifying where you are on the S-curve, because most of the money that's ever been made in technology investing has been made by people who correctly identified that they were in the early innings of a very long S-curve, and most of the money that's ever been lost has been by people who thought they were in the early innings when they were actually in the late innings.

TBPN

FULL BREAKDOWN: Why Oracle's Stock is Exploding

Compute is still growing exponentially. But AI adoption curves often look like S-curves... there's going to be deceleration. So OpenAI shot up to basically a billion MAU, monthly active users... that curve is slowing down. There's just no way you can be like, yeah, actually, we're expecting 10 billion ChatGPT users next year because there aren't 10 billion people.

TBPN

Oracle Rips, Ellison's Tech-First Vision, Fertilizer Crisis | Apoorv Agrawal, Owen Jennings, Amjad Masad, Shardul Shah, Mike Blue, Brian Taylor, Ivan Soto-Wright

compute is still growing exponentially. But AI adoption curves often look like S curves.