We discuss why magazine depth matters for the American industrial base, lessons from Ukraine, and what the rise of neo-prime defense companies will require from Congress.
the two physical constraints that in Gavin's view will dictate the next phase of AI. On power, he thinks the near-term shortage starts to ease in 2027 and 2028 as new sources of energy come online, and that orbital compute solves it in the long term. On wafers, he explains what is different this time from the dotcom bubble and why TSMC's capacity decisions may be the single most important variable to watch.
With the US more than 50 years behind China in critical mineral supply and grid infrastructure built on systems designed a century ago, they examine where the real bottlenecks are and how to move faster.
Well, everybody's realizing that if you go through a PBM, you lose. And when you look at direct-to-patient, whether it's through us, whether it's Trump RX, whether it's Lilly, whether it's Novo Nordisk, whether it's um BMS with Eliquis, whatever it may be, they're doing this to so so that they don't have to deal with the PBMs.
China has captured America's most famous company. It's an extraordinary realization that Apple is worth about 3.7 trillion US dollars on the stock market, but it isn't really the company's shareholders that actually call the shots, at least not in China. In China, it's the Chinese government that calls the shots.
But if TSMC is bottlenecked and TSMC is sort of riskoff and they're not going to be, you know, guiding to like insane capex numbers while every American hyperscaler is, well, that creates an opportunity for Samsung.
The more the economies are interlinked, the less likely there is a conflict. So all of this underscores the importance of TSMC Arizona Samsung Intel broadly as well as startup fab projects.
if this war is extended if it if if we see um no offramp for for for the US and Israel and it has to continue and therefore that choke point stays closed. At some point we're going to see you're going to see a supply crunch and that's what that that's really the the major fear.
there are about 20 million barrels of oil that transit the straits of Hormuz every day. That's almost three times as much as Russia exports. So, you know, this is a problem three times as great as the problem that created the panic on global oil markets at the start of the Ukraine war.
roughly 20% of the world's oil production is flowing through that every day and so whether you're looking backward or looking forward there is no replacement whatsoever for opening that strait and keeping it open.
