if this war is extended if it if if we see um no offramp for for for the US and Israel and it has to continue and therefore that choke point stays closed. At some point we're going to see you're going to see a supply crunch and that's what that that's really the the major fear.
there are about 20 million barrels of oil that transit the straits of Hormuz every day. That's almost three times as much as Russia exports. So, you know, this is a problem three times as great as the problem that created the panic on global oil markets at the start of the Ukraine war.
roughly 20% of the world's oil production is flowing through that every day and so whether you're looking backward or looking forward there is no replacement whatsoever for opening that strait and keeping it open.
I think people are probably just beginning to realize that this is not going to be a two-day affair. It should be a two-day affair because if if Iran was run by a normal government that had the interests of its own people at heart, they'd have surrendered 24 hours ago or 48 hours ago because there's there's no way that they can win.
China wants to plant a flag on the moon when it puts a person onto the South Pole. This is a big part of the China Luna missions and I think it's going to be fascinating to watch.
Just beneath the surface of the global economy, there is a hidden layer of dealmakers for whom war, chaos, and sanctions can be a great business opportunity.
