The US is going to be consuming a lot more natural gas going forward, and the infrastructure to deliver that gas is going to be a bottleneck. You're going to need more pipelines, more LNG export terminals, more storage. The question is whether the capital investment can keep up with the demand growth.
Starting in 2028, AI data centers and LNG exports will need more gas than the country can produce and deliver. By his math, the US could exhaust its working natural gas storage by 2030. In his words, the upside risk to prices becomes unbounded and convex.
The fundamental problem is that America has been extraordinarily successful at producing natural gas, but the infrastructure to move it, store it, and export it has not kept pace with demand growth. We are essentially running a system that was designed for a different era, and the consequences of that mismatch are going to become very apparent very soon.
1mo ago
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