The thing I try to remind myself is that if you think about what's happened in the last 100 years — where people live, the nature of work, what life expectancy is — all of the things that we would have said to be true in 1925 would be wrong. And I think we will see more change in the next 10 years than we saw in the previous 100.
The biggest mistake investors make is that they think about technology adoption as linear, when in reality it follows an S-curve. The early part of the S-curve looks like nothing is happening, and then suddenly everything happens at once, and then it plateaus. Most investors are either too early and give up, or they extrapolate the steep part of the curve forever.
The best investors in technology don't just understand the technology itself — they understand where they are on the S-curve. Most people anchor to the present and extrapolate linearly, but the whole game is recognizing when adoption is about to inflect and when it's about to plateau.
Investors don't believe the great data center build that will continue into next year. The market is now telling us that it is expecting 2026 to be the peak year in the data center buildout.
6mo ago
Underscored — save the words that stop you in your tracks.
