Hidden Brain

Why Am I Unhappy?

Most of us believe that we know what we want. We imagine that if we just got that thing — the job, the relationship, the house — we'd be happy. But research suggests that we're not very good at predicting what will make us happy, and that we often adapt to good things far more quickly than we expect.

Freakonomics Radio

688. When Is a Bet Not a Bet?

As prediction markets boom, there are other questions, too — about insider trading, market manipulation, and whether the public has turned against them.

Freakonomics Radio

687. Are Prediction Markets the Best Forecasting Tool Ever — or Just Another Casino?

The promise is that they can beat the experts at predicting inflation, elections, and FDA approvals. But right now, roughly 90 percent of the action is sports. Is this a future we want to bet on?

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Sam Altman - How to Make an Abundant Future - [Invest Like the Best, EP.484]

The thing I try to remind myself is that if you think about what's happened in the last 100 years — where people live, the nature of work, what life expectancy is — all of the things that we would have said to be true in 1925 would be wrong. And I think we will see more change in the next 10 years than we saw in the previous 100.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Alex Sacerdote - How to Invest Through Technology Cycles - [Invest Like the Best, EP.477]

The biggest mistake investors make is that they think about technology adoption as linear, when in reality it follows an S-curve. The early part of the S-curve looks like nothing is happening, and then suddenly everything happens at once, and then it plateaus. Most investors are either too early and give up, or they extrapolate the steep part of the curve forever.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Alex Sacerdote - How to Invest Through Technology Cycles - [Invest Like the Best, EP.477]

The best investors in technology don't just understand the technology itself — they understand where they are on the S-curve. Most people anchor to the present and extrapolate linearly, but the whole game is recognizing when adoption is about to inflect and when it's about to plateau.

The a16z Show

Robin Hanson on Prediction Markets, Gambling, and the Future of Forecasting

speculative markets are one of the most powerful tools humans have for aggregating information and forecasting outcomes

Semafor

FCC Chairman Brendan Carr on the NFL's Streaming Push, Iran Coverage, and Media M&A

You're trying to see where is the market going rather than taking a very static snapshot of where it is today.

The a16z Show

Marc Andreessen on AI Winters and Agent Breakthroughs

the messy reality of 8 billion people means both AI utopians and doomers are too optimistic about the pace of change

The Prof G Pod – Scott Galloway

Nvidia Says $1T Is Coming — The Market Isn’t Buying It | Prof G Markets

Investors don't believe the great data center build that will continue into next year. The market is now telling us that it is expecting 2026 to be the peak year in the data center buildout.