The real problem with deterrence is that it requires your adversary to believe you will actually follow through. And historically, the United States has had a credibility problem — we draw red lines and then don't enforce them, which is an invitation for adversaries to probe and push.
I have no leverage. Trump is me in the Hungarian forest right now. Because he never bothered to consult Congress and offended them. Because he never even signed up or even briefed European allies. Because he did not in any way coordinate anything around intelligence around the Straits of Hormuz, getting expats out of the Gulf, figuring out putting in place the right defense mechanisms.
I would say all of this to me means that the rivalry has entered a new phase. The White House is talking about exploring measures to hold foreign actors accountable. That's the phrase they use for industrial scale distillation campaigns. To me, I think the important thing is that politically, geopolitically, this is a step change.
