TBPN

Martin Shkreli Breaks Down the Collapse of Situational Awareness

The smart guys get in early, start buying, see the prices go up, buy some more. And then less smart guys take note and say, I want to do that. I want to be up 400% this year, too. And then but by the weakest hands are buying at the top. So they're also the first to sell. The first to panic. And it just creates this like, you know, every bubble's sort of the same. You have this euphoria, this peak, and then, you know, everyone sort of panics at once.

Pivot

Kara Swisher Calls It Now: the Paramount Merger Won’t Go Through | Pivot

Investors understand something executives often don't, and that is winning in court can still mean losing economically.

TBPN

Leopold is Back! Big Tech Earnings, Beautiful Debt, Defense Tech Deep Dive

But our fund must always be structured such that we can take a loss and fight another day.

Diet TBPN

Leopold Stays in the Game, Big Tech Earnings, OpenAI Slashes GPT-5.6 Prices | Diet TBPN

When AI stocks draw down dramatically while AI technical business fundamentals are improving, you should expect our fund to be down a lot. We embrace volatility, but it should never jeopardize the fund.

The Week

The Week: The Hidden Debt Behind the AI Boom

When you're hiding a bigger number than what you're reporting, that's not accounting, it's concealment. And Meta's off-balance debt is $420 billion, which is 3x what they report. That's not a rounding error, that's a second company hiding liabilities inside of the first company.

TBPN

Martin Shkreli Breaks Down the Collapse of Situational Awareness

The 80 or 90% of the assets shareholders don't change hands. It's that 5% of the margin that's deciding the price. And if that 5% is in the state where they're they're levered up 3x or 4x as we heard uh SALP is uh was a 4x levered fund, which is that's a lot of leverage. You know, a 25% draw down takes you out of business.

Diet TBPN

The Collapse of Situational Awareness, Ferrari Luce Stays on Track for 2026 | Diet TBPN

When leverage is involved, things just move so so so fast, right? You remember with FTX, there's kind of some rumblings, a couple couple posts from SPF saying like we're fine, it's all good, and then it was over. And then the same thing with SVB, like couple rumblings, maybe like a a couple weeks, a week beforehand, few posts here and there, and then it just moves so so fast, right? quite a bit different than traditional venture world where when a company's dying it dies over two, three years often sometimes more.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Sam Altman - How to Make an Abundant Future - [Invest Like the Best, EP.484]

I think most people, if they reflect on it, would say, well, of course I want my children and grandchildren to have cures for diseases, cheap energy, and whatever, but somehow the actions that society takes show that we're way more focused on preventing downside than enabling upside. And I think that's a mistake. I think the expected value of the world is so much better if we can figure out how to build a world of radical abundance than if we just prevent bad things from happening.

Diet TBPN

AMD Advancing AI, Google Q2 Earnings, OpenAI Plans $750B Cloud Spend | Diet TBPN

As someone who has personally spent $500,000 a month plus on Google ads for years, I can tell you with certainty, this revenue growth in search is artificial and extremely unhealthy for Google's business long term.

Book of the Day

Colson Whitehead on 'Cool Machine,' the final in his Harlem Trilogy series

There's no pension plan for a safe cracker. He doesn't have like a an IRA or 401k. What's next for him?

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Matthew Smith — Natural Gas: The Next Bottleneck - [Invest Like the Best, EP.483]

Starting in 2028, AI data centers and LNG exports will need more gas than the country can produce and deliver. By his math, the US could exhaust its working natural gas storage by 2030. In his words, the upside risk to prices becomes unbounded and convex.

Pivot

Andrew Tate and Brother Charged with New Sex Crimes. "It's Epstein in Real Time" | Pivot

When you have this much money wagered on matches, they're no longer it's no longer a gambling story. It's a capital market story.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Jeremy Giffon - The Billion Dollar PDF - [Invest Like the Best, EP.481]

The nice thing about buying things in private markets is you can buy a business at eight times earnings that a public market might price at 20 times earnings, and that gap represents the opportunity. The issue is the information set you're working with is much worse, the liquidity is much worse, and the alignment between you and the people running the business is often much worse.

Radiolab

Atomic Artifacts

If Washington DC were hit, every object in the the National Archives would be eviscerated in a moment. Terrified by this reality, they set out to save some of America's most precious stuff.

The Prof G Pod – Scott Galloway

Rep. Jim Himes: America Is Losing Leverage in Iran

There's about 4,000 years of Persian history to suggest that that's not a happy place to be.

Diet TBPN

The Meta Compute Debate | Diet TBPN

Up until now there's been no obvious place that it's going to come from. Right. Had the Manis deal that's being unwound.

The Prof G Pod

How to Be Poor: Building Wealth on Less Than $60K a Year | Office Hours

Every dollar you pay off your credit card debt, you're basically earning an 18 to 24% guaranteed return. There's no place you're going to get a guaranteed return of 18 to 24%.

EconTalk

Do Less, Heal More: The Case for Medical Conservatism (with John Mandrola)

Mandrola argues that financial incentives, professional identity, and language itself ("bone-on-bone," "the widowmaker") conspire to push patients toward interventions that can do more harm than good.

TED Radio Hour

Sports psychology for everyday life

The more open you can be to be completely devastated by something, the more possibility opens up to you. And I think that that's true in life, I think that's true in love, I know that that's true in sport.

Book of the Day

A new book argues Elon Musk is the architect of a new world view | NPR's Book of the Day

Overnight, without you even knowing it, your own life chances, the life chances of your children, will be dependent on people continuing to prop up Musk's visions of how the world should look.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Kareem Amin - The Unusual Approach to Company Building - [Invest Like the Best, EP.478]

I think the most counterintuitive thing about company building is that the biggest risk is not moving too slow — it's moving too fast. When you move too fast, you make decisions before you have enough information, and those decisions are very hard to undo.

TED Radio Hour

Sports psychology for everyday life

the more open you can be to be completely devastated by something, the more possibility opens up to you. And I think that that's true in life. I think that's true in love. I know that that's true in sport. The more you open yourself up to devastation, the more possibility will be open to you.

It's Been a Minute

Boundaries, bodies, and better sex | It's Been a Minute

We saw trust permeated decision-making, sexual health decision-making almost completely. So, thinking about establishing trust with a partner, that is what helped people experience comfort in a sexual relationship. That comfort then helped them to feel more comfortable with engaging in unprotected sex.

TED Radio Hour

Sports psychology for everyday life

the more open you can be to be completely devastated by something, the more possibility opens up to you. And I think that that's true in life. I think that's true in love. I know that that's true in sport.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Alex Sacerdote - How to Invest Through Technology Cycles - [Invest Like the Best, EP.477]

The mistake most investors make is they think of S-curves as a single curve, but the reality is that most important technologies are actually a series of S-curves stacked on top of each other, and the transition periods between those S-curves are where most of the value is created and most of the mistakes are made.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Alex Sacerdote - How to Invest Through Technology Cycles - [Invest Like the Best, EP.477]

The danger in technology investing is that S-curves nest inside S-curves. You can be right about the ultimate destination and completely wrong about the timing, and if you're wrong about the timing in a leveraged way, you don't get to be right about the destination.

TED Radio Hour

Sports psychology for everyday life

I try to tell my kid, the more open you can be to be completely devastated by something, the more possibility opens up to you. And I think that that's true in life. I think that's true in love. I know that that's true in sport. The more you open yourself up to devastation, the more possibility will be open to you.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Alex Sacerdote - How to Invest Through Technology Cycles - [Invest Like the Best, EP.477]

The thing that's really interesting about the AI moment is that, unlike prior technology cycles, the hyperscalers themselves are the ones funding the build-out. So you don't have the same risk of a capital cycle bust that you had in, say, the fiber buildout of the late '90s, where it was funded by debt and then the whole thing collapsed.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Dara Khosrowshahi - Uber's Bet on AVs, AI, and Building a Super-App - [Invest Like the Best, EP.476]

The biggest risk for Uber is actually AV technology working perfectly and Uber not being a part of it. Because if AV technology works perfectly and Uber's not a part of it, then you essentially have players who have a lower cost structure than us who can come in and compete with us and essentially make our service irrelevant.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Dara Khosrowshahi - Uber's Bet on AVs, AI, and Building a Super-App - [Invest Like the Best, EP.476]

The formula that I used was when the company is doing well, double down. When the company is doing not so well, double down. I think that's actually the right formula because the greatest risk for Uber was irrelevance. If you slow down, you get lapped.

TED

The Invisible Infrastructure in the Sky | Adam Bry | TED

Drones enable us to have a complete digital picture of the grid to prevent this kind of thing from happening. And if it does happen, we can know about it sooner and faster and mitigate the response.

Pivot

Scott Galloway on SpaceX IPO: "The Game Is Rigged" | Pivot

You have what is in my opinion the greatest degree of manufactured scarcity ever in an IPO and this is about to be the greatest transfer of wealth from retail investors since crypto

Radiolab

On the Media: American Emergency

As natural disasters are getting more extreme and less predictable, this series makes sense of that tangle, and provides a prescient peek into FEMA's future.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Dan Loeb - Lessons from 30 Years of Investing - [Invest Like the Best, EP.475]

The thing about activism is that there's a forcing function. You've done all this work. You own the stock. You think there's value. But the management may be destroying value or not realizing the value, and at some point you have to do something about it or you're just going to sit there and watch your investment go to zero.

Diet TBPN

WWDC Kicks Off, Jobs Up, Tech Down, VC Horror Stories Go Viral | Diet TBPN

Your PR team will have many heart attacks uh because you're not in the world of deterministic outputs anymore. So that's going to be a big cultural shift for Apple I think in this uh non-deterministic stochastic uh AI era.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Dan Loeb - Lessons from 30 Years of Investing - [Invest Like the Best, EP.475]

I think the biggest lesson I've learned is that the market is a discounting mechanism for the future, not the present. And what that means is that when things look the darkest, that's often when the best opportunities exist, and when things look the brightest, that's often when the risk is highest.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Dara Khosrowshahi - Uber's Bet on AVs, AI, and Building a Super-App - [Invest Like the Best, EP.476]

The biggest risk for Uber is that we actually don't lean into AV enough, that we're not aggressive enough in terms of our partnerships, that we're not aggressive enough in terms of building product. Because I think AV is going to happen, and I want Uber to be the biggest beneficiary of AV, not the biggest victim of AV.

Pivot

Who’s Really to Blame for "60 Minutes" Chaos? | Pivot

When you're in an industry that's in structural decline and you have a product that's up 9% year-on-year. You don't [ __ ] with it,

The New York Times

How the Ebola Outbreak Is Spreading Mistrust in Congo

People who die from Ebola remain highly infectious. That's why burial teams are trained to handle them in protective gear, to disinfect the body and keep families from touching the dead. But those rules are breaking down.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Dan Loeb - Lessons from 30 Years of Investing - [Invest Like the Best, EP.475]

I think the most dangerous thing is to think that you've mastered the markets. The markets are going to teach you a lesson just when you get most confident. And so the most important thing is to maintain a kind of intellectual humility and a curiosity and to never stop learning.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Dan Loeb - Lessons from 30 Years of Investing - [Invest Like the Best, EP.475]

I think the most important thing in investing and in life is having the right temperament to deal with uncertainty and the unknown. Most people, when confronted with uncertainty or unknowing, they become fearful, and their decision-making is impaired. The best investors I know are actually energized by uncertainty because they see it as an opportunity.

TED

Waymo’s Case for a Driverless Future | Tekedra Mawakana, Sal Khan | TED

People are really comfortable with the number of people who die on the roads. 40,000 people dead, 1.2 million globally and avoidable in many cases, isn't something upon which we share collective outrage or even moderate discomfort.

The Business of Tech

Is Starlink eating rural NZ?

The problem is what you don't see on the box, the resilience, sovereignty and competition risks that come when a growing chunk of rural New Zealand's connectivity, including some mobile towers, schools and businesses, depends on a single foreign owned satellite provider.

The Business of Tech

Is Starlink eating rural NZ?

Outside of defense and a few security sensitive corners of government, there's been remarkably little strategic thinking about what happens if Starlink stumbles, changes its business model, or simply decides New Zealand isn't a priority market anymore.

Throughline

Prediction markets are making a 150-year comeback | Throughline

Because you have the option to bet on bombs being dropped, on people dying, events that will have huge impacts on real people's lives.

Throughline

Prediction markets are making a 150-year comeback | Throughline

And in several cases, there's evidence suggesting that the anonymous people who made these bets may have had insider information.

Compound Interest

Who Wants To Own Big Law?

Litigation finance is simply treating litigation claims as financial assets. You know, when you think about what litigation is, stepping back, it's just an effort for the most part to get money to move from one party to another.

Prof G Pod

Scott Answers: Is AI Making Markets Crash-Proof? | Office Hours

If you think you're a stock picker, just keep in mind you're competing against an algorithm that looks at millions of points of data designed by a ton of PhDs making a lot of money all in a room who do nothing but try and pick up on signals. And you're watching CNBC or deciding because you see a long line outside of Chipotle that you're somehow informed on the markets.

Compound Interest

Wonder’s Marc Lore On Vibe-Coding Restaurants, Drone Delivery, & Becoming "The IPO Guy"

I've learned this lesson that anything fun, you know, in life, you usually lose money on until until sports.