It's becoming increasingly untenable for prediction markets to sit in the middle of the tension between gambling on the news and trying to self-regulate such that they don't encourage insider trading.
if this war is extended if it if if we see um no offramp for for for the US and Israel and it has to continue and therefore that choke point stays closed. At some point we're going to see you're going to see a supply crunch and that's what that that's really the the major fear.
there are about 20 million barrels of oil that transit the straits of Hormuz every day. That's almost three times as much as Russia exports. So, you know, this is a problem three times as great as the problem that created the panic on global oil markets at the start of the Ukraine war.
roughly 20% of the world's oil production is flowing through that every day and so whether you're looking backward or looking forward there is no replacement whatsoever for opening that strait and keeping it open.
this is a regime that um is essentially a death cult and doesn't have the same motivations as a normal regime has. They view the death of their own people, the martyrdom of their people as a sign of their own sacredness and righteousness.
Mortal danger was actually, I think, a core part of the appeal of the sport in those early days. These guys were gladiators. They were risking their life every time they got in a car.
4d ago
Underscored — save the words that stop you in your tracks.
