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You can be 22 years old, not graduate from college, go into the Navy, enlist in the Navy, not even in the officer training program, and in 18 months you can be responsible for the security of a nuclear power plant on a submar. Your pdoom on nuclear is completely irrelevant to you doing this job, right?

Diet TBPN
15h ago

Every fiber in my being was screaming at me to get out of this building. Every second that we wasted was one second closer to us not getting out of the building. But that's not what firemen do. We were there to save people's lives. And that culture, that firefighter culture, overtook whatever personal need I felt to get out of the building.

5d ago

We're getting more and more evidence there might be like no amount of football that is actually safe for people to play.

1w ago

The climate impacts scale with the the the temperature rise we experience, which kind of means there's no point at which we should just give up, right? Because the hazards at 1.7 are better than they are at two. And if we go past two, then it's worth trying to stay below 2.3 rather than 2.5.

2w ago

It seems like everyday Taiwanese people don't have the same uh sense of uh battle preparedness and and bellacosity when it comes to uh mainland China as the Ukrainians do towards uh Russia. Maybe I'm misreading this. Uh, but I when I go to Taiwan, I I and even mainland China, I don't sense, you know, this degree of urgency that, you know, one would have sensed in the in the years leading up to the Russia Ukraine crisis.

3w ago

People have this image of nuclear when they think about nuclear they think about Chernobyl they think about Fukushima these really salient high impact single events and I think that in some sense that skews our perceptions to thinking that nuclear is incredibly unsafe source of energy.

3w ago

The fraud cycle follows the financial cycle with a lag. And the longer the financial cycle goes on, the more amount of fraud is ultimately uncovered on the down cycle. The harshest prosecutor and the staunchest defense attorney of a company is its stock price. Nobody goes after frauds at all-time highs.

1mo ago

The fraud cycle follows the financial cycle with a lag. And the longer the financial cycle goes on, the more amount of fraud is ultimately uncovered on the down cycle. So, I've already dubbed this the golden age of fraud. And I suspect that when we're on the down part of this cycle, the bodies will float to the surface as they always do.

1mo ago

I guess I kind of just feel like if you only engage in an action that you're certain is going to be successful, that's pretty cowardly, really. You know, I mean, we want to be strategic and effective as activists, but there's no guarantee in any of this stuff. And that doesn't mean it's not still a worthwhile way to spend your life.

1mo ago

When you're learning, or trying new things, you're going to make mistakes. The trick is to try to fail in a way that gives you useful information.

1mo ago

The smart guys get in early, start buying, see the prices go up, buy some more. And then less smart guys take note and say, I want to do that. I want to be up 400% this year, too. And then but by the weakest hands are buying at the top. So they're also the first to sell. The first to panic. And it just creates this like, you know, every bubble's sort of the same. You have this euphoria, this peak, and then, you know, everyone sort of panics at once.

1mo ago

When you're hiding a bigger number than what you're reporting, that's not accounting, it's concealment. And Meta's off-balance debt is $420 billion, which is 3x what they report. That's not a rounding error, that's a second company hiding liabilities inside of the first company.

1mo ago

The 80 or 90% of the assets shareholders don't change hands. It's that 5% of the margin that's deciding the price. And if that 5% is in the state where they're they're levered up 3x or 4x as we heard uh SALP is uh was a 4x levered fund, which is that's a lot of leverage. You know, a 25% draw down takes you out of business.

1mo ago

When leverage is involved, things just move so so so fast, right? You remember with FTX, there's kind of some rumblings, a couple couple posts from SPF saying like we're fine, it's all good, and then it was over. And then the same thing with SVB, like couple rumblings, maybe like a a couple weeks, a week beforehand, few posts here and there, and then it just moves so so fast, right? quite a bit different than traditional venture world where when a company's dying it dies over two, three years often sometimes more.

1mo ago

I think most people, if they reflect on it, would say, well, of course I want my children and grandchildren to have cures for diseases, cheap energy, and whatever, but somehow the actions that society takes show that we're way more focused on preventing downside than enabling upside. And I think that's a mistake. I think the expected value of the world is so much better if we can figure out how to build a world of radical abundance than if we just prevent bad things from happening.

1mo ago

The nice thing about buying things in private markets is you can buy a business at eight times earnings that a public market might price at 20 times earnings, and that gap represents the opportunity. The issue is the information set you're working with is much worse, the liquidity is much worse, and the alignment between you and the people running the business is often much worse.

2mo ago

If Washington DC were hit, every object in the the National Archives would be eviscerated in a moment. Terrified by this reality, they set out to save some of America's most precious stuff.

2mo ago

Up until now there's been no obvious place that it's going to come from. Right. Had the Manis deal that's being unwound.

2mo ago

The more open you can be to be completely devastated by something, the more possibility opens up to you. And I think that that's true in life, I think that's true in love, I know that that's true in sport.

2mo ago

the more open you can be to be completely devastated by something, the more possibility opens up to you. And I think that that's true in life. I think that's true in love. I know that that's true in sport. The more you open yourself up to devastation, the more possibility will be open to you.

2mo ago

We saw trust permeated decision-making, sexual health decision-making almost completely. So, thinking about establishing trust with a partner, that is what helped people experience comfort in a sexual relationship. That comfort then helped them to feel more comfortable with engaging in unprotected sex.

2mo ago

the more open you can be to be completely devastated by something, the more possibility opens up to you. And I think that that's true in life. I think that's true in love. I know that that's true in sport.

2mo ago

The mistake most investors make is they think of S-curves as a single curve, but the reality is that most important technologies are actually a series of S-curves stacked on top of each other, and the transition periods between those S-curves are where most of the value is created and most of the mistakes are made.

2mo ago

I try to tell my kid, the more open you can be to be completely devastated by something, the more possibility opens up to you. And I think that that's true in life. I think that's true in love. I know that that's true in sport. The more you open yourself up to devastation, the more possibility will be open to you.

3mo ago

The thing that's really interesting about the AI moment is that, unlike prior technology cycles, the hyperscalers themselves are the ones funding the build-out. So you don't have the same risk of a capital cycle bust that you had in, say, the fiber buildout of the late '90s, where it was funded by debt and then the whole thing collapsed.

3mo ago

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