Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Alex Sacerdote - How to Invest Through Technology Cycles - [Invest Like the Best, EP.477]

The great irony of technology investing is that the stocks that look the most expensive at the beginning of an S-curve are often the cheapest, and the stocks that look the cheapest at the end of an S-curve are often the most expensive.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Alex Sacerdote - How to Invest Through Technology Cycles - [Invest Like the Best, EP.477]

The S-curve is a very well-known concept in technology investing, but what's less appreciated is that the most dangerous moment is often at the top of the S-curve, when a technology looks the most dominant and the most entrenched. That's precisely when the next S-curve is being born underneath it, and the incumbents are most blind to the threat.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Alex Sacerdote - How to Invest Through Technology Cycles - [Invest Like the Best, EP.477]

The best tech investors understand that the S-curve is not just a description of what happened — it's a prediction tool. When you're early on the S-curve, the technology is improving faster than the market appreciates, and when you're late, the technology is maturing faster than the market appreciates.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Alex Sacerdote - How to Invest Through Technology Cycles - [Invest Like the Best, EP.477]

The biggest mistake investors make is that they think about technology adoption as linear, when in reality it follows an S-curve. The early part of the S-curve looks like nothing is happening, and then suddenly everything happens at once, and then it plateaus. Most investors are either too early and give up, or they extrapolate the steep part of the curve forever.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Alex Sacerdote - How to Invest Through Technology Cycles - [Invest Like the Best, EP.477]

The failure mode that I've seen in technology investing over my career is people who are trained on a particular way that technology markets work, and they can't break free of it. They have a very successful decade, typically, where they nail one cycle, and then the next cycle they try to map the old framework onto the new one, and that's where the mistakes get made.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Alex Sacerdote - How to Invest Through Technology Cycles - [Invest Like the Best, EP.477]

The best investors in technology don't just understand the technology itself — they understand where they are on the S-curve. Most people anchor to the present and extrapolate linearly, but the whole game is recognizing when adoption is about to inflect and when it's about to plateau.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Alex Sacerdote - How to Invest Through Technology Cycles - [Invest Like the Best, EP.477]

The mistake most investors make is they think about technology investing as stock picking, when really it's about cycle recognition. If you can identify where you are on the S-curve of a technology's adoption, the individual stock selection becomes almost secondary to being in the right part of the cycle at the right time.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Alex Sacerdote - How to Invest Through Technology Cycles - [Invest Like the Best, EP.477]

The mistake most investors make is they think about technology investing as a static exercise — you find a great company, you understand its competitive position, you underwrite the earnings, and you hold it. But technology is defined by change, and so you need to have a framework for thinking about how industries evolve over time.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Alex Sacerdote - How to Invest Through Technology Cycles - [Invest Like the Best, EP.477]

The business of investing in technology is really the business of identifying where you are on the S-curve, because most of the money that's ever been made in technology investing has been made by people who correctly identified that they were in the early innings of a very long S-curve, and most of the money that's ever been lost has been by people who thought they were in the early innings when they were actually in the late innings.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Alex Sacerdote - How to Invest Through Technology Cycles - [Invest Like the Best, EP.477]

The other thing about platform transitions is that they reset competitive advantage. So the incumbents that have accumulated distribution and integration and switching costs — those advantages largely reset with platform transitions. That's what makes them so valuable for investors; new winners can emerge from what looks like chaos.

Hidden Brain

Who Are You, Really?

For many of us, forgetting a name or losing your keys feels like a small failure. But what if forgetting is actually one of the most important things your brain does?

Hidden Brain

Unleashing Your Creativity

Most people assume that creativity is a fixed trait — you either have it or you don't. But research suggests that creativity is less like a gift and more like a muscle: it can be developed, strengthened, and yes, sometimes exhausted.

Hidden Brain

Unleashing Your Creativity

Most people think about creativity as something that just strikes you — like a bolt of lightning. But research suggests that creativity is less about sudden inspiration and more about the associations your brain makes between concepts. The more unusual and distant those associations, the more creative the idea.

Hidden Brain

Unleashing Your Creativity

Most people think about creativity as a gift — something you either have or you don't. But research suggests that creativity is less like a trait and more like a muscle: it can atrophy if you don't use it, and it can grow stronger with practice.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Dan Loeb - Lessons from 30 Years of Investing - [Invest Like the Best, EP.475]

I think the most important lesson I've learned is that the ability to change your mind is probably one of the most important traits an investor can have. People confuse consistency and stubbornness, and they also are worried about how they look if they change their views.

Daily Stoic

The Stoic Mind Behind D-Day

Plans are worthless, but planning is everything. He understood that you had to plan and anticipate and imagine every contingency. And yet, he also understood fundamentally this other Stoic idea, which is there some things in our control and some things aren't.

Hidden Brain

Unleashing Your Creativity

Psychologist Ap Dijksterhuis explores the hidden mental processes that lead to these moments of inspiration, and why breakthroughs often emerge when the mind is at rest.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Dan Loeb - Lessons from 30 Years of Investing - [Invest Like the Best, EP.475]

I've always thought of myself as a learning machine. The moment I think I know everything or I've seen everything or I've experienced everything, I become a worse investor. The best investors I know are voraciously curious and are always trying to update their models and their thinking.

Daily Stoic

The Stoic Way To Lead Without Ego

Complicated things come together the same way every time. A set of Legos. Instructions to build a Ferrari. Complex things change as you interact with them. So, the question asked is it more like building a watch? Is it more like raising a teenager?

Hidden Brain

Unleashing Your Creativity

Most people think that creativity is something you either have or you don't — that it's a fixed trait, like eye color. But researchers who study creativity say this belief is not only wrong, it may actually be preventing people from thinking creatively.

Hidden Brain

Unleashing Your Creativity

We worry so much about the blank page or the blank canvas. But research suggests that placing too high a premium on originality can actually be a creativity killer. When we feel we have to be original, we become self-conscious, and self-consciousness is the enemy of creativity.

Hidden Brain

Unleashing Your Creativity

For centuries, people have described creativity as something mysterious: a flash of insight, a whisper from the muse, a sudden idea that seems to arrive out of nowhere.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Dan Loeb - Lessons from 30 Years of Investing - [Invest Like the Best, EP.475]

I think the most dangerous thing is to think that you've mastered the markets. The markets are going to teach you a lesson just when you get most confident. And so the most important thing is to maintain a kind of intellectual humility and a curiosity and to never stop learning.

Hidden Brain

Unleashing Your Creativity

Most people assume that creativity is a trait — you either have it or you don't. But research suggests that creativity is less like a fixed ability and more like a muscle: it can be strengthened with practice, and it can also atrophy when it goes unused.

Hidden Brain

Unleashing Your Creativity

Most people think of creativity as the production of something new. But Ogas and Rose argue that creative breakthroughs almost always involve making unusual connections between existing ideas. They say that highly creative people are essentially librarians of their own knowledge and experience — constantly cross-referencing and combining things in ways that others don't think to do.

Freakonomics Radio

The Curious Mr. Feynman (Update)

the world is awash in lousy ideas — so maybe it's time to get some more Feynman in our lives?

Daily Stoic

7 Stoic Steps To Battle Addiction

Anything that you can't not do, the Stoics would say, is something you should look at with that kind of suspicion and aversion.

EconTalk

Thinking Inside the Box (with David Epstein)

The problem is that we're often led to believe that we need to think outside the box, but actually the most creative solutions often come from people who have gone so deep into a box that they understand the nuances and the constraints so well that they can find new pathways within it that others couldn't see.

Hidden Brain

The Empathy Gym

Some people are good at putting themselves in another person's shoes. Others may struggle to relate. But psychologist Jamil Zaki argues that empathy isn't a fixed trait.

Semafor

Leading Through Transformation with BCG & Lumen Technologies at Semafor World Economy

The market's not going to get any less crazy. It's the change economy. That's where we are. So, I don't really think we can look outside for calm. I think we have to have ways of creating calm inside.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Dan Loeb - Lessons from 30 Years of Investing - [Invest Like the Best, EP.475]

What I find most interesting about Dan is how much his approach has evolved across thirty years.

EconTalk

Thinking Inside the Box (with David Epstein)

What do the inventor of the periodic table, the novelist Isabel Allende, and the almost-creators of the iPhone have in common? Join author David Epstein and EconTalk's Russ Roberts to explore a counterintuitive idea: that boundaries, and not unlimited freedom, often make us more creative, productive, and fulfilled.

Hidden Brain

The Past is Never Dead

anthropologist Joseph Henrich says the impact of culture goes even further, reaching into our bodies and our minds. He takes us on a journey through time to show how human cultures create a "collective brain," and how that shared knowledge profoundly shapes who we are and how we live.

Origins Podcast

Origins Podcast: Moral Economics with Nobel Laureate Alvin Roth: From Prostitution to Kidney Markets

If only we allowed it to. But what generally gets in the way is something called repugnance, which we'll get to. And um and that we that we should overcome our a priori ideas when they're wrong, which is what science is all about.

Founders

#419 Kelly Johnson: Skunk Works

A concentration of a few good people solving problems far in advance—and at a fraction of the cost—of other groups by applying the simplest, most straightforward methods possible to develop and produce new projects. All it is really is the application of common sense to some pretty tough problems.

EconTalk

Thinking Inside the Box (with David Epstein)

that boundaries, and not unlimited freedom, often make us more creative, productive, and fulfilled

TED

The Art and Science of Wine Tasting | Qian Janice Wang | TED

Chemical complexity in the glass does not necessarily equal perceived complexity when people are rating the wine.

TED

Stress Resets, the Ultimate Mental Health Hack | Jenny Taitz | TED

Stress is less about what you're facing and more about believing you can cope. This isn't positivity. This is regulating your nervous system, framing stress as an opportunity for growth and accepting sensations, even knots in your stomach, lowers cortisol and allows you to persevere.

Compound Interest

Mark Cuban's Dallas Mavericks Sale Regrets

I was working under some assumptions that I thought were part of the deal, and they turned out not to be.

TED

The Art and Science of Wine Tasting | Qian Janice Wang | TED

There are actually two ways of thinking about complexity when it comes to wine or food. There's, first, chemical complexity, right? That's the stuff that's in the glass. What are the chemical molecules in the wine? And then there's a concept called psychological complexity, where complexity is not really in the wine, but it's in the mind of the drinker.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Paul Tudor Jones - Lessons From 50 Years in Markets - [Invest Like the Best, EP.469]

Trading is like boxing—you have to have a strong defense before you can think about offense, and most people want to be Mike Tyson before they can be Muhammad Ali.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Paul Tudor Jones - Lessons From 50 Years in Markets - [Invest Like the Best, EP.469]

Trading is like boxing — you have to have your hands up, you have to be ready to move, and you have to understand that the moment you get hit, you need to get out of the ring and reassess.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Paul Tudor Jones - Lessons From 50 Years in Markets - [Invest Like the Best, EP.469]

Trading is like boxing—you have to have a sustained ability to take a punch, and then know when to throw the big one.

The Origins Podcast

Motion, from Galileo to Dark Mysteries. Lecture 3 in the Origins Podcast Series on Physics

The fact that it took Galileo to redefine our thinking about motion and intelligent people from Aristotle and onward had thought about how things moved in the world and gotten it totally wrong suggests that motion is not so simple.

The Origins Podcast

What's New in Science, Sabine Hossenfelder & Lawrence Krauss:

I think there's a lot of confusion about you know just you know quantum what what can quantum actually do and so I thought it would it's a good example to explain just what's reality and what's fiction.

Decoder with Nilay Patel

THE PEOPLE DO NOT YEARN FOR AUTOMATION

Software brain is powerful stuff. It's a way of thinking that basically created our modern world. But software thinking has also been turbocharged by AI in a way that I think helps explain the enormous gap between how excited the tech industry is about the technology and how regular people are growing to dislike it more and more over time.

TED Radio Hour

Using ancient philosophy to cope with your modern problems

Socrates, by asking them questions, by teaching them philosophy, helped them realize they had a lot more options than they might have believed they had based on who was in power.

Hidden Brain

How to Change the World

Does power truly flow from the barrel of a gun? Pop culture and conventional history often teach us that violence is the most effective way to produce change. But is that common assumption actually true?

Daily Stoic

A Month of the BEST Lessons from Marcus Aurelius

You always have the power to have no opinion. Things are not asking to be judged by you. Don't turn this into something. The fewer opinions you have, the fewer judgments you make, the more you're able to just leave things as they are, the happier you will be, the more productive you will be, the more focused you will be, and the easier you will be to get along with.