I have no way to tell what any of the words that I speak, that are feathered things on the breath of air, how will they be received and how will my chaos be dispersed to the winds. I have no way to control any of that.
Taking action, even though you don't have a real grounded expectation of being successful, I think there's still value in the action to watch and witness and be able to say that you saw what was there.
The interesting thing about AI is that the returns are so uncertain. You could imagine a world where AI is transformative and these investments are the best ever made, or you could imagine a world where the returns never come and it's the biggest misallocation of capital in history.
Do I know for sure, for sure, if we should do it? No, but I do know we can't keep talking about it. We're either never going to do it, or we're going to become two Tony Randles who feed our baby applesauce that we also eat.
On some of these trips, actually, when you get into the kayak, you don't even know. You stretch the spray skirt on over the cockpit and you don't know if that's the last time you'll ever be doing that and you sort of pray that it's not.
The American way is that you should always know what you're doing. You've made a decision and you should stick with it. But the fact is that no writer knows what they're doing until they've done it. The way that you get to the miracle of writing is bird by bird.
Plans are worthless, but planning is everything. He understood that you had to plan and anticipate and imagine every contingency. And yet, he also understood fundamentally this other Stoic idea, which is there some things in our control and some things aren't.
One of the key aspects of fandom is that we are risking a little bit of our emotional and psychological health on something over which we have no control and that there was it's a little bit of gambling in a way on our happiness and that's what makes it thrilling. It's also what makes it crushing and disappointing at times, but without that sense of powerlessness, you don't get the same roller coaster.
It's so hard to be living not only in constant limbo, but with this level of hyper-vigilance that no matter what you do, there are outside factors that can wreck your life with a blink of an eye.
I think the most important thing in investing and in life is having the right temperament to deal with uncertainty and the unknown. Most people, when confronted with uncertainty or unknowing, they become fearful, and their decision-making is impaired. The best investors I know are actually energized by uncertainty because they see it as an opportunity.
It's hard to see through fog. It's hard to measure an economy of the size and scope of the United States. It's even harder when we're in the middle of so much change.
I've been thinking about it for a long time and it's hard. It's really hard to make this decision and I did not know for a long time if I would make this decision.
Against I would be worried about unknown unknowns. Pro. While there isn't much human data, the anecdotal evidence is pretty strong. Against anecdotes are not enough for me. Pro. Fair. It is for me.
For everyone in London, whether you lived through the night was, therefore, a matter of luck. The odds were long, only one in 20,000 chances of being hit, said the papers. But still, every bomb landed somewhere. Each bomb might be that one. You couldn't know it wasn't till it hadn't fallen on you.
6mo ago
Underscored — save the words that stop you in your tracks.
