I think we're at an inflection point where the thing that's going to matter the most is the cost of intelligence and the cost of energy, and I think both of those are going to come down dramatically. And if you can make intelligence and energy cheap and abundant, then I think all other scarcity starts to dissolve.
I think we are at the very beginning of a transition to a world where intelligence and energy are not the limiting reagents anymore. And if you just think about what humans could do if those were both cheap and abundant, I don't think the world has ever experienced anything like that before.
I think we are at an early transition point where the world is going to change more in the next 10 or 15 years than it has in really any comparable period in human history. And I want people to really take that seriously, not just as a throwaway line, but really think about what that means — that the things that are going to be true about the world 15 years from now will be things that seem unimaginable or at least unbelievable to most people today.
I think most people are not appreciating how different the next 10 to 20 years are going to be, maybe even the next five years. I think we're going to get systems that are going to basically be able to do the work of a country, many countries, at once. The amount of scientific progress that I expect in the next decade, I think, would shock most people.
I think we are at the beginning of an era where, for the first time, we will have AI systems that can do basically all cognitive tasks that humans can do. And then, after that, I think we'll have AI systems that can do cognitive tasks that humans can't do at all. This will be the greatest and fastest creation of wealth in human history — and a total transformation of what society looks like.
The thing that I find most interesting and surprising about the current moment is that I think most people would say that the most impactful thing that's ever happened to humanity is starting to happen, and yet most people don't really believe it. They know it, but they don't believe it in their gut.
The thing I try to remind myself is that if you think about what's happened in the last 100 years — where people live, the nature of work, what life expectancy is — all of the things that we would have said to be true in 1925 would be wrong. And I think we will see more change in the next 10 years than we saw in the previous 100.
The speed of which AI is changing we're not adapting our society fast enough... the biggest issue confronting our country today and other countries is the speed of which this change is occurring is society moderating that fast enough?
5mo ago
Underscored — save the words that stop you in your tracks.
