The nice thing about buying things in private markets is you can buy a business at eight times earnings that a public market might price at 20 times earnings, and that gap represents the opportunity. The issue is the information set you're working with is much worse, the liquidity is much worse, and the alignment between you and the people running the business is often much worse.
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Risk means more things can happen than will happen. The practical definition of risk is not volatility or a standard deviation — it's the possibility of permanent loss of capital. Volatility is opportunity dressed in frightening clothes.
Howard Marks — The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor
The record of a money manager who merely stays close to the market is not an outstanding record—it is a record of someone who has successfully rationalized doing nothing. The question is not whether you beat the market, but whether you had the intellectual honesty to know when you had no edge and the discipline to act accordingly.
Seth Klarman — Margin of Safety: Risk-Averse Value Investing Strategies for the Thoughtful Investor
I think it comes down to whether you think AI is more Oil or God, more 'an economically useful commodity that can be scaled and refined to act as a multiplier on everything we do' or 'supremely intelligent and powerful being that's going to wake up and make humanity subservient (if we're lucky).'
Packy McCormick