Globalization was always going to fail. The global demographic picture was evolving in the direction where there just weren't going to be enough young people to do the consuming that would make trade possible. And the idea that the United States would continue to hold up the ceiling in a post-Cold War world when there was no agreement as to who the bad guy was, that was always going to fail.
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In the roughly 15 years it took the US to finish its first two Westinghouse AP1000 reactors at Vogtle, China built four of them, then they reverse-engineered the design into its own Hualong One, and now they have 10 Hualongs running with at least 37 more on the way. China knows that the way to make nuclear cheap is to make a lot of reactors over and over.
Packy McCormick
Anthropic says early evidence suggests that these methods have reduced the amount of data harvested by distillers by around 90 to 99%. This appears to have led to a slowing down of Chinese Open-weight Model releases in Autumn, 2026.
Michael Spencer
I believe that between 2027 and 2037, in this immediate next decade we'll be reaching the most dangerous period for military AI to cause massive harm to human civilization. That is, just when AI appears to becoming more powerful in things like cybersecurity (a military application), global conflict appears to risk serious escalation. I believe it will soon become impossible to maintain human-in-the-loop systems and safeguards in some, and a growing number of multiple and many new aspects of warfare.
Michael Spencer