I believe that between 2027 and 2037, in this immediate next decade we'll be reaching the most dangerous period for military AI to cause massive harm to human civilization. That is, just when AI appears to becoming more powerful in things like cybersecurity (a military application), global conflict appears to risk serious escalation. I believe it will soon become impossible to maintain human-in-the-loop systems and safeguards in some, and a growing number of multiple and many new aspects of warfare.
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Scaling laws work capabilities keep keep jumping but our ability to have alignment and safety assurance just be built in seems not there. um maybe never going to be there if that is the case then what do we do so then you got to come outside the model.
Future Proof
If I'm she, I'm going to flood the market with cheap AI and watch Open AI and Enthropic announce a slowdown in growth, which will absolutely freak out the market and probably thrust the US, if not the entire West, into a recession.
The Prof G Pod
Globalization was always going to fail. The global demographic picture was evolving in the direction where there just weren't going to be enough young people to do the consuming that would make trade possible. And the idea that the United States would continue to hold up the ceiling in a post-Cold War world when there was no agreement as to who the bad guy was, that was always going to fail.
The Prof G Pod