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Risk means more things can happen than will happen. The gap between those two things is where most investment mistakes live — people confuse a good outcome with a good decision, and a bad outcome with a bad decision.

— Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing Illuminated (2011)
6m ago

The universe is transformation; life is opinion. Things do not touch the soul, for they are external and remain without; but our perturbations come only from the opinion which is within.

7m ago

We are all apprentices in a craft where no one ever becomes a master. The thing is to keep working, to go on making things, to let the making itself teach you what you need to know.

7m ago

The entire music industry has embraced digital tech and streaming. But the music economy is going in the opposite direction—back to live music and in-the-flesh contact with the audience. As a result, the percent of consumer spending targeted at concert tickets is growing rapidly. Income generated by digital music has meanwhile collapsed, and shows no sign of rebounding.

4h ago

Perhaps if you were to take in all of this life, all this experience, your heart would not be able to hold it. Perhaps it's not death we're afraid of but too much life.

16h ago

The moment you have protected an individual you have protected society. But the moment you destroy an individual you have destroyed an individual — and that is all. Society cannot be protected by the destruction of individuals.

20h ago

Leverage is the only way a smart person can go broke. It's also the only way a person of modest means can become wealthy quickly — which is why it's so seductive and so dangerous. The solution is simple but not easy: never let a temporary setback become a permanent one.

22h ago

Accounting is the language of business, and you have to be as comfortable with that language as you are with your native tongue. But accounting is only a tool — the map is not the territory, and the numbers are not the business. The danger is mistaking precision for accuracy.

1d ago

The universe is wider than our views of it. Yet we should oftener look over the taffrail of our craft like curious passengers, and not make the voyage like stupid sailors picking oakum.

1d ago

It sounds romantic, in a way, until you really put it together that he's singing to his son who may or may not be out on the streets. It always really touched me—'Come on home, No you don't have to be alone.'

1d ago

Relentless noise continues to benefit the few while distracting from literally anything else. There's little evidence that investors are pricing in aggregate benefits from AI spend — perhaps because they're not being anticipated, or maybe because they are on such extreme ranges of possibility that they defy modelling.

1d ago

engineers coaxed those few devices out of a toolset built for chips, and each one takes years of process work to get up and running. Atomic Machines wants to go after a whole new swath of sci-fi products now that they've made it easier: gears the size of a grain of sand, robots that work inside the body, cooling built into AI chips, even a device that runs instant blood tests — Holden argues that her dream was possible, but needed a manufacturing technology that didn't exist yet.

1d ago
ai-supremacy.com
AI off the Charts II

According to Anthropic's internal index, Claude led 26% of measured model R&D work in August, up from under 1% in February. How fast will internal model RSI teams accelerate new more powerful models? Researchers set the tasks and supervise execution, and Anthropic reports that this is speeding up development.

1d ago

It's possible to think of vertical short-form video feeds as a kind of heavenbanning. Your feed is curated by AI, tailored to your own preferences. The videos you see aren't made by anyone you know, or (probably) by anyone you'll ever meet.

1d ago

We are always acting on what has just finished happening. It happened at least 1/30th of a second ago. We think we're in the present, but we aren't. The present we know is only a movie of the past.

1d ago

Invert, always invert. Many hard problems are best solved by asking what you want to avoid, not what you want to achieve. Most people ask 'how do I succeed?' when they should be asking 'what guarantees failure?'

2d ago

The thing that astonishes me is that the geologists and biologists seem quite unaware of the philosophical chaos that underlies their own work — they proceed as though the universe were already explained, and their only task were to fill in the details.

2d ago

It is not by any means certain that a man's business is the most important thing he has to do. And yet most men live as if it were, and the scheme of their days is arranged accordingly.

2d ago
whyisthisinteresting
The Intention Edition

The state everyone is chasing only arrives when a hundred small decisions about bodies, sound, sightlines, queues and toilets have been considered. Hotels call this invisible service. Clubs learn it faster, because a bad decision shows up faster.

2d ago

Ryan explains his time management framework of treating each day as a bank of 1,000 minutes changed the way he works, and why success can still feel insufficient after you achieve all of your dreams.

2d ago

It felt like those scenes of astronauts who, having finally rattled free of the earth's atmosphere, slip into the stillness of space. Except we weren't in space. We were on earth — finally, really on earth.

2d ago

The universe begins to look more like a great thought than a great machine. Mind no longer appears to be an accidental intruder into the realm of matter; we ought rather to hail it as the creator and governor of the realm of matter.

2d ago

It is not by accident that the happiest people are those who make the most interesting mistakes.

2d ago

The fate of the world will be settled by the unhistoric acts of those who lived faithfully a hidden life, and rest in unvisited tombs.

2d ago

The stock promoter says 'this is the next big thing' and the analyst says 'the fundamentals support a higher valuation' — but neither of them is asking the only question that matters: what's already in the price?

3d ago

The company's bet: customers will increasingly use one, or just a couple, of more powerful agents to handle cross-functional tasks, instead of replacing current human job functions on a one to one basis. "It would be sad if we end up reinventing the world with a dozen different, disparate tools," Traynor says.

3d ago
ai-supremacy.com
AI: Off the Charts

Meanwhile personal agents are likely to accelerate token usage but a lot of it might not have much economic value but still require tremendous amounts of compute. This could result in a Capex compute mismatch that is markedly bearish for the AI boom.

3d ago

Throughout most of the 2010s, there was a popular notion that society should basically ignore and shun people like that, and that if we all simply shunned them, and pressured our friends and colleagues to shun them, they and their views would vanish from American society — or at least remain marginalized. That approach failed. Anti-immigrant ideas didn't remain marginalized — in fact, they took over the country, despite their continued unpopularity among the general American public.

3d ago

A man's character is his fate. And yet we spend our lives constructing masks so elaborate that we forget the face beneath them — until sorrow strips it bare, and we meet ourselves for the first time.

3d ago

Mimicking the herd invites regression to the mean. The problem is not just that you end up average — it's that you've taken on all the risk of being wrong while surrendering any chance of being interestingly right. Consensus is the enemy of asymmetric returns.

3d ago

We are always getting ready to live, but never living. And the readiness is all we ever achieve — a perpetual anteroom to the life we meant to begin tomorrow.

3d ago

It is not the neutrality of stone that we should seek, but the engagement of fire. The stone endures; the fire transforms. And it is only in transformation that anything lives.

3d ago

The former say we may see a catastrophe as soon as next year; the latter has vacillated between creating a de facto licensing regime for frontier models and publicly encouraging US companies to go even faster. But the Trump administration remains frustratingly obtuse on the question of where all this is headed, even as more warning signs blink red.

4d ago

The only way I think you can really write about something, or somewhere, is to talk to strangers about it. When people are speaking to me, it's as an equal. I'm there at the diner or whatever, having breakfast, you're next to me having yours, we strike up a conversation. The omelette; the weather; the upcoming election.

4d ago

The demand for continuity is the most conservative of all human instincts, and yet without the power to change, continuity itself becomes a form of death.

4d ago

At a time when teenage tastes controlled the charts, and three-minute anthems of rebellion took over the radio, Campbell found success in the most unlikely way of all, with lonely songs about lonely guys far away from home. The protagonist in a Glen Campbell song isn't heading to San Francisco with flowers in his hair. He's not a street-fighting man or a working-class hero or even just a fortunate son. He's sad and alone and wants to get back to Phoenix—or Wichita or Galveston or some other place he used to be.

4d ago

You only have to be right a few times in your life, as long as you don't make too many big mistakes in between. The asymmetry between gains and losses means that avoiding catastrophe is more important than scoring victories.

4d ago

It is not given to man to take stock of what is killing him. Perhaps it is better so. Our blinkers are part of our armor.

4d ago

The market is brutally efficient at correcting overconfidence, but almost infinitely patient in tolerating underperformance disguised as prudence. The real risk most institutions face is not that they will lose money, but that they will fail to make it — and never be called to account for that failure.

5d ago

The one I ignored was its recommendation that I not invoke Claude anymore; in fact, I used Claude to root out the malware — we eventually found the exact four second period where it gained access — create a tool to watch for it in the future, and then wiped the Mac Mini. All of this happened before I found the Ars Technica article detailing the vulnerability, and it was pretty remarkable. I understand that people are nervous about giving these agents access to one's computer — as I noted, the Mac Mini in question has nothing on it except for Codex and Claude — but in this case you could make the case that I would have been in much more trouble had I not had an agent running persistently.

5d ago

I am not a nostalgic person, and I would like to be a little less relentless about wanting more, but it is the one place I reliably stop and ask how any of this happened. For this reason trains and their stations are romantic to me and I always find myself a little contemplative about the momentum of life.

5d ago

I believe that between 2027 and 2037, in this immediate next decade we'll be reaching the most dangerous period for military AI to cause massive harm to human civilization. That is, just when AI appears to becoming more powerful in things like cybersecurity (a military application), global conflict appears to risk serious escalation. I believe it will soon become impossible to maintain human-in-the-loop systems and safeguards in some, and a growing number of multiple and many new aspects of warfare.

5d ago

And remember, this was at a time when Trump was deporting construction workers en masse — 13% of the construction workforce is undocumented, and deportations also have knock-on negative effects on the industry that result in the firing of native-born workers as well. This probably explains the pause in the increase of construction employment in 2025. But even that couldn't stop construction's rise.

5d ago

Underscored — save the words that stop you in your tracks.

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