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A great business at a fair price is superior to a fair business at a great price. But what most people miss is the third lesson: the passage of time is the friend of the wonderful business and the enemy of the mediocre one. Patience isn't just a virtue in investing — it's a compounding force.

Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Letter (1989)
3d ago

It is not the going out of port, but the coming in, that determines the success of a voyage. And so it is with the long voyage of life — but how seldom do we think of this when we are young, and planning our first departure!

2w ago

The best way to think about how markets work is to imagine a voting machine in the short run and a weighing machine in the long run — but most people spend their entire careers trying to win votes instead of actual weight.

3w ago

The best single question to ask about any moat is: 'In ten years, will this business be harder or easier to compete with?' Most analysts ask about next quarter's margins. That's why most analysts are wrong about compounding.

4w ago

Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years. Compounding is not just a financial concept — it applies to knowledge, relationships, and reputation. The problem is that compounding looks like nothing is happening, right up until it looks like everything is happening.

4w ago

Forgetting that your returns depend on the returns of the businesses you own—not on what you paid for them—is the source of more investment error than almost any other mistake I can think of. You must always ask: what will this business earn over time? Everything else is noise.

1mo ago

Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years. But the subtler error is assuming the next ten years will look like the last ten — the truly dangerous assumption for any investor or builder.

1mo ago

The single greatest edge an investor can have is a long-term orientation that other investors are structurally unable to match. Most investors are forced by their mandates, their clients, or their own psychology to think in quarters. If you can genuinely think in decades, you are not playing the same game they are.

2mo ago

For five and a half years, David Senra read one business biography a week, recorded a podcast about it, and published each episode to almost no one. Today, Founders is a cult obsession among some of the world's most powerful CEOs and billionaires, and a one-man business generating millions in annual profit.

2mo ago
whyisthisinteresting
The Measles Uptick Edition

The US built its scientific leadership over eighty years through a simple and elegant idea: the government funds the basic research that no private actor has the time horizon or risk tolerance to fund, and that foundational work eventually becomes the commercial infrastructure that generates returns for everyone. You can't defund the headwaters and then wonder why the river runs dry.

2mo ago

It is not the going out of port, but the coming in, that determines the success of a voyage.

2mo ago

The best business returns are usually achieved by companies that are doing something quite similar today to what they were doing five or ten years ago. That is no accident.

2mo ago

Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years. But the deeper error is that they plan in one-year chunks at all — the unit of compounding is decades, not quarters.

2mo ago

The single greatest edge an investor can have is a long-term orientation that isn't merely stated but is structurally enforced — meaning your capital, your clients, and your own psychology are all aligned so that you literally cannot sell at the wrong time.

3mo ago

The greatest competitive advantage in business is a long time horizon. Almost all of the gains in any market come from people willing to wait longer than everyone else is willing to wait, and almost nobody is structurally set up to do that.

3mo ago

Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years. The long-term compounder who does nothing dramatic usually beats the person executing a brilliant short-term strategy.

3mo ago

Amazon, more than any other company, actually operates with decade-long timeframes, consistently making real-world investments at massive scale that (1) convert their marginal costs into capital costs and (2) gain leverage on those capital costs by selling them to other businesses.

4mo ago

The best thing a company can do is compound capital efficiently over a long period of time. Everything else is details.

4mo ago

Amazon — whether through vision or good fortune — was positioning itself well for a world defined by inference (given that their inference chip is called "Trainium", I'm going with a little bit of column A and a little bit of column B).

4mo ago

The best thing a company can do is compound capital efficiently over a long period of time. That's what creates shareholder value. Most companies don't do it because they're distracted by quarterly earnings, acquisitions that destroy value, or just bad capital allocation decisions.

4mo ago

The best thing a company can do is compound capital efficiently over decades. Everything else is noise.

4mo ago

Compelling answers about the big questions about AI can inform the most important economic and foreign policy decisions that will ever be made, the deployment of (at least) hundreds of billions of philanthropic dollars, and the training and governance of superintelligences.

4mo ago

The best thing a company can do is to be a wonderful place to work and to create products and services that genuinely improve people's lives. Most companies optimize for the wrong thing—they optimize for quarterly earnings instead of for the long-term health of the business and the satisfaction of their customers.

5mo ago

The task of the excellent teacher is to stimulate 'apparently ordinary' people to unusual effort over many years.

5mo ago

The big difference between what I do and what a lot of people in the hedge fund world do is that I actually think about the economics of the business, whereas a lot of people are just trying to make a quick buck.

6mo ago

Underscored — save the words that stop you in your tracks.

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