oneusefulthing.org

The twilight of the chatbots

We are very bad at feeling exponentials from the inside, and we are currently inside one. I think this also explains the turbulence around AI better than the usual stories about hype. AI is not capable of being a real cybersecurity threat until suddenly it is, causing sudden and improvised policy changes at the highest level of government.

oneusefulthing.org

The twilight of the chatbots

We are very bad at feeling exponentials from the inside, and we are currently inside one. AI is not capable of being a real cybersecurity threat until suddenly it is, causing sudden and improvised policy changes at the highest level of government. Markets discount whether AI might threaten to undermine a business model until suddenly it can, leading to massive swings in stocks.

stratechery.com

2026.15: Myth and Mythos

However, a point I make on Sharp Tech is that Anthropic's exponential growth includes the part of the curve everyone misses: the company has been on this once-barely-visible trajectory for nearly two years now. Now the company has what is undoubtedly the most powerful model in the world, so powerful, in fact, that Anthropic says it can't release it publicly. There's reason for cynicism, given Anthropic's history, but the part of the "Boy Cries Wolf" myth everyone forgets is that the wolf did come in the end.

oneusefulthing.org

The Shape of the Thing

This is an era of managing AIs, rather than working with them. This new approach to AI is the outcome of the rapid exponential improvement in AI abilities. That means you can't understand where we are, and where we might be going, without understanding the increasing capability of AI.

oneusefulthing.org

The Shape of the Thing

This new approach to AI is the outcome of the rapid exponential improvement in AI abilities. That means you can't understand where we are, and where we might be going, without understanding the increasing capability of AI.