underscored

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Tag:fiscal-policyClear

Unsustainable fiscal policies can only go on so long. Eventually bond investors decide that the US will not in the end do the right thing after trying everything else, and default, expropriation, taxation, capital controls, or sharp inflation is on its way. They stop buying long-term bonds especially, and look to the comfort of short term bonds…Moving to short maturity structures is a classic symptom of trouble ahead.

John Cochrane
3w ago
whyisthisinteresting
The Tax Free Year Edition

The total number of hours worked in industry increased 3.3% in 1969, and then fell 1.8% in 1970. The number of women working in industry increased 6.2% in 1969, and stayed high in 1970, before falling again in 1971. The biggest impact might have been in the balance of payments.

1mo ago

The government's deficits have saddled many American families with higher costs, largely from rising interest rates. The Budget Lab, the policy research center at Yale where I am the executive director, recently estimated that congressional-spending decisions since 2015 have raised Treasury yields by almost a full percentage point, which affects what American households pay to borrow. For someone taking out a 30-year mortgage at last year's median home price, this rise in long-term interest rates has increased their borrowing costs by about $2,500 a year, or roughly $76,000 over the life of the loan.

1mo ago

Right now, the national debt continues to explode, because the government is borrowing money just to pay the interest on the money it borrowed before. This increased debt naturally results in even greater interest costs, forcing the government to borrow even more to fund those interest payments. And so on.

3mo ago

Gilt holders are often portrayed as the last line of defence for enforcing fiscal discipline and the sherpas along a political path of least drama. Their mob power is rarely more than theoretical.

4mo ago

Underscored — save the words that stop you in your tracks.

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