Here's the irony: the bait ball also attracts more predators due to its concentrated nature. The same behavior that makes you harder to pick off as an individual makes the collective impossible to ignore. The logic that protects the individual exposes the group.
I've always said this, at Microsoft we are at our best when we do what the world expects us to do, we are at our worst when we do things out of envy, which is just because somebody else had some cool hit, somewhere, doesn't mean we should go do that.
In the Electric Era, maintaining design leadership without manufacturing leadership is not a coherent strategic position, and one that gets less coherent the better you believe AI will get.
Nvidia is changing its reporting to delineate between hyperscaler sales — where Nvidia is fighting commoditization — and everyone else, where Nvidia runs the whole stack.
We believe we have identified the largest actionable total addressable market ("TAM") in human history. We estimate that our quantifiable TAM is $28.5 trillion, consisting of $370 billion in Space from space-enabled solutions; $1.6 trillion in Connectivity across $870 billion in Starlink Broadband and $740 billion in Starlink Mobile as well as additional opportunities in enterprise and government; $26.5 trillion in AI across $2.4 trillion in AI infrastructure, $760 billion in consumer subscriptions, $600 billion in digital advertising, and $22.7 trillion in enterprise applications.
While Google and Anthropic have executed well in their Generative AI efforts, OpenAI has fumbled their priorities while losing considerable marketshare over the last year.
As AI tools become more widely used and increasingly specialized, many business leaders are trying to think quickly and creatively about how to best utilize this technology at nearly every level of their operations.
1mo ago
The best way to think about the future is not by extrapolating the past, but by understanding what wants to happen and then asking yourself, 'Am I going to help it happen, or am I going to hinder it?'
Azure had a real competitive advantage thanks to being the only hyperscaler able to offer OpenAI models, but this also hindered OpenAI, particularly once it became clear that many enterprises cared first and foremost about accessing models on their current cloud of choice; I've been noting for a while that this was a real competitive advantage for Anthropic.
It was amazing that a tactic so simple could defeat more sophisticated strategies. It suggested that there was something inherently powerful in reciprocity. Just as the proverb predicts: As you sow, so shall you reap.
It's opportunity costs, not marginal costs, that are the challenge facing hyperscalers. How much compute should go to customers, and which ones? How much should be reserved for internal workloads?
Zhang was candid about that competitive battle, sharing how Decagon values speed and "go-to-market execution" as "advantages," but not "long-term differentiators."
We're not kicking the dog because it's down. We're kicking it because this is the gold right now, and Anthropic are the only ones truly capable of this [kind of attack].
2mo ago
The best time to think about the exit is before you start the company. If you don't know what success looks like, you'll never achieve it.
2mo ago
One cannot simultaneously prevent and prepare for something. It is enough that we prepare for the one or the other.
Iran has done the one thing that everyone — except, apparently, Donald Trump and his leadership team — had always expected them to do in a major war with the U.S. They have closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20-25% of all global oil and liquefied natural gas flows.
2mo ago
The best time to think about the exit is before you start the company. Where do you want this business to go? Do you want to build something that lasts forever, or do you want to build something to sell?
The company's core strategy was to avoid competition entirely: enter markets where frozen fries didn't exist, prove the market by exporting first, hire locals, and only build a factory after the numbers justified it.
Microsoft is seeking to commoditize its complements, but Anthropic has a point of integration of their own; it's good enough that Microsoft is making a new bundle on top of it.
It used to be a one-year strategic plan. You would lay out, 'Okay, we're going to do this, we're going to do that.' Now you're like, 'All right, let's go see if you can make this work, two days later. And it works.'
We think it's an unfortunate bind to be in, and it creates a lot of uncertainty on how to proceed in leveraging Anthropic. Some of our customers are in the same bind as well.
A compelling false narrative, once viral, cannot be overturned by facts — you must accept that and play the long game instead of fighting the story with evidence.
3mo ago
Underscored — save the words that stop you in your tracks.
