underscored

@underscored

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Tag:tail-riskClear

Most 'make AI go well' interventions are insurance against bad outcomes, especially tail risks. My meta-level argument is that the best way of converting money into impact is to identify interventions that have the property of paying off big in both worlds: by producing step-changes in welfare in the everyday world as well as significantly reducing tail-risks in the emergency world.

Jassi Pannu
2w ago

But it is hard to find much sign that it is doing so. And Gillian Tett: [I]nvestors need to get better at imagining — and pricing — once-unimaginable disasters. This is hard. No business school teaches students how to model something like a presidential threat to wipe out a civilisation.

3mo ago

What's unfortunate is that things have a habit of happening all at once, and "could be worse" won't pay for many carefree retirements.

3mo ago

Underscored — save the words that stop you in your tracks.

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