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Most people think that if they just had more information, they'd make better decisions. But the problem is rarely a lack of information β€” it's that we don't want to believe what the information is telling us.

β€” Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing Illuminated (2011)
1d ago

The risk of paying too high a price for good-quality stocks is not the chief hazard for the thoughtful, enterprising investor β€” his chief hazard is the adoption of unsound principles or inapplicable methods under conditions of excitement and stress.

3d ago

It is not the insurrections of ignorance that are dangerous, but the revolts of intelligence.

3d ago

The demand of the human intellect is for a world in which something is permanently true. Science gives us a world in which everything is provisionally true β€” which is not at all the same thing.

5d ago

Private insurers may be an unnecessary middleman, but the amount they extract from the system is not large compared to the amount that gets either appropriated or wasted by the people providing the care. So why do Americans β€” especially American progressives β€” focus so obsessively on health insurers instead of health providers? In a post two years ago, I hypothesized that it's because insurers are the part of the system we have direct contact with β€” the people who have to tell us "no" when we can't afford some treatment.

6d ago

We are reluctant to believe that the world we see is not the whole world. Yet the history of knowledge is largely the history of such reluctance being overcome.

1w ago

The ability to destroy your ideas rapidly instead of slowly when the occasion is right is one of the most valuable things you can have. You have to work hard on it. Ask yourself what are the arguments on the other side. It's bad to have an opinion you're proud of if you can't state the other side better than your opponents.

1w ago

We are apt to think that our ideas are the spontaneous product of the mind working upon experience; but in truth our ideas are largely the inheritance of past thought, and the experience upon which they work is itself colored by inherited assumptions.

1w ago

The truth is that we never know for certain about anything. The degree of assurance we feel about any proposition is not a measure of its truth, but a measure of our familiarity with the evidence bearing on it.

1w ago

Every act of conscious learning requires the willingness to suffer an injury to one's self-esteem. That is why young children, before they are aware of their own self-importance, learn so easily.

1w ago

The chains of habit are too light to be felt until they are too heavy to be broken. Most people don't recognize the institutional imperative at work β€” the tendency of organizations to mindlessly imitate whatever peers are doing, regardless of whether it makes sense.

1w ago

It is not what the man of science believes that distinguishes him, but how and why he believes it. His beliefs are tentative, not dogmatic; they are based on evidence, not on authority or intuition.

1w ago

We are all of us the worse for too much solitude. A man who shuts himself up from the world falls into an exaggerated estimate of his own importance, and loses the power of measuring himself by his fellows.

1w ago

The universe is under no obligation to make sense to you. But stranger still is the fact that it does β€” partially, provisionally, and always at the cost of uprooting what we thought we already knew.

1w ago

Risk means more things can happen than will happen. The dangerous investor is not the one who doesn't know what will happen, but the one who doesn't know what he doesn't know.

1w ago

The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible.

1w ago

The art of being wise is the art of knowing what to overlook.

2w ago

Because human beings remember with neurons, we are disposed to see more of what we have already seen, hear anew what we have heard most often, think just what we have always thought. Our minds are burdened by an informational inertia whose headlong course is not easy to slow… No individual can think his way around his own Attractors, since they are embedded in the structure of thought.

2w ago

But the strangest, most staggering thing in all of this is the instinctual reaction we so-called modern humans have to the dangerous delusions of our ancestors, as though they are fossils in the intellectual evolution of our species. This is strange and staggering because human cognitive capacity has not measurably evolved for many thousands of years, which means that the obtuse ideas of our ancestors sprang from the same brains as our indignant indictment of them. It also means that the egregious delusion with which these eminent "men of science" apprehended and classified the world sprang not from their intellectual capacity but from their cultural conditioning, which in turn means that a great many of the belief — confirmations we take for science today might render us the subject of posterity's indignant indictments.

2w ago

The mind, in short, works on the data it receives very much as the sculptor works on his block of stone. In a sense the statue stood there from eternity. But there were a thousand different ones beside it in the same stone, and the sculptor alone is to thank for having extricated this one from the rest.

2w ago

The difficulty lies not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones, which ramify, for those brought up as most of us have been, into every corner of our minds.

2w ago

We accept the verdict of the past until the need of the present voices a demand for change; and even then we rarely have the courage to deny that the past was right, we merely claim that it was right for another age.

2w ago

The mind is furnished with a set of instincts which seek out certain kinds of phenomena and ask for explanations of certain kinds of things. Any answer to a question which does not ask or explain the right kind of thing will be philosophically frustrated and dull.

2w ago

The best thing for your own mind is to be exposed relentlessly to smart people who disagree with you.

2w ago
oneusefulthing.org
Choosing to Stay Human

We are trained to read well-crafted sentences and intellectual sounding texts as the result of effortful human work and thus pay attention to these AI written comments when we see them. But there is often no human meaning there, these posts are just meaning-shaped attention vampires that take mental effort to decode and give you no equivalent understanding in return.

3w ago

The mind does not work by way of ideas, but by way of passionate preferences; we do not see nature, we see our idea of nature.

3w ago

The biggest investing errors come not from companies that fail, but from companies that succeed in ways you didn't anticipate. You prepare for the future by studying how the past was different from what people expected.

3w ago

The mind is furnished with a set of instincts which seek out certain kinds of phenomena and are angered by their absence and immediately go in search of them.

3w ago

The sign of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function.

3w ago
whyisthisinteresting
The AI Mirror Edition

AI is a mirror, not a crystal ball. It reflects ourselves back to us because it was trained on our words. When we wonder why it's boring or corporate, it's because we're boring and corporate!

3w ago

The big question about artificial intelligence is not whether machines can think, but whether humans will stop thinking and let the machines do it for them.

4w ago

The mind is furnished with a set of instincts which seek out certain kinds of phenomena and are angered by their absence and appalled by alien forms; which love them when found, but will have none of them when not directly forced upon us.

4w ago

The mind of a thoroughly well-informed man is a dreadful thing. It is like a bazaar overcrowded with cheap wares, all one's attention is perpetually distracted by some new and startling suggestion.

4w ago

The real, unsettling mechanism of Fallon's banal horror is its insistence on a radical non-engagement with reality: a position that, in our current political climate, is itself an aggressively political act.

1mo ago

The best way to think about the future is not by extrapolating the past, but by understanding incentive structures and what they reward. Most people get this backwards.

1mo ago

The human mind is a dark forest, full of wild life and monsters. We do not know what we are, we can only see small lights in the forest of our unconsciousness, as it were luminous, phosphorescent flowers and night-blossoms.

1mo ago

Judges check page length before reading a word. β€’ Long brief? We read faster and with less attention. β€’ Short brief? We slow down and pay closer attention. Brevity signals confidence.

1mo ago

The mind of a thoroughly well-informed man is a dreadful thing. It is like a bazaar overcrowded with all sorts of goods, each clamoring for attention.

1mo ago

Selection went especially bonkers during the Bronze Age (around 3,000 years ago). That's when gene frequencies for everything from immune function to body fat to intelligence were most in flux. Over the last 10,000 years, selection pushed the genetic predictor of cognitive performance up by roughly a full standard deviation β€” most of it between 4,000 and 2,000 years ago.

1mo ago

Generative AI finds averages. Given the task of betting on stocks, they'll synthesise the average meatbag market participant, who trades too much and will react in inconsistent ways to identical information. A chatbot has no edge, durable or otherwise, because the average investor has no edge.

1mo ago
3quarksdaily.com
Maladaptive frugality

I realized I could either continue to drain myself for a small expense, or let it go and focus on the projects in front of me. I had, unknowingly, engaged in maladaptive frugality.

1mo ago

The investor of today does not profit from yesterday's growth. You must study where the world is heading, not where it has been. Most people are heavily invested in the past.

1mo ago

Underscored β€” save the words that stop you in your tracks.

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