noahpinion.blog

Are we watching the U.S. go bankrupt?

Unsustainable fiscal policies can only go on so long. Eventually bond investors decide that the US will not in the end do the right thing after trying everything else, and default, expropriation, taxation, capital controls, or sharp inflation is on its way. They stop buying long-term bonds especially, and look to the comfort of short term bonds…Moving to short maturity structures is a classic symptom of trouble ahead.

ftav

This is nuts. When's the crash?

There is a potential '2008 real estate' analogy in AI infrastructure. Hyperscalers and neo-clouds have built data centers based on promises of future compute purchases, creating a credit-like structure tied to tenants whose long-term profitability is uncertain.