From the release of GPT-4 to the end of the METR measure, the amount of work AI could do doubled eight times. In 2024, an AI could do a four minute task. At the moment I turned in my draft of Co-Existence in April of 2026, an AI could do 17 hours of human work.
Given our best current data, the AI self-improvement loop would need to be roughly 5–10× stronger to sustain itself, let alone run away. I expect incredibly rapid AI progress by the standards of nearly any other technology. But the evidence we have doesn't suggest a sudden explosion to incomprehensible superintelligence anytime soon.
Meta's Muse and SpaceX's Grok Bot make chatbots a bit less relevant in that these are about AI as a utility, helper and assistant in accomplishing tasks. We're still seemingly a far way away from the kind of AI companion that is truly capable even four years after ChatGPT first launched which is astounding to me.
There's this cycle that keeps repeating where a new model comes out and people are blown away and they're like, 'This is it. This is AGI.' But then they use it a bit, and it starts to feel dumb after a month or so. That cycle just might keep going.
1mo ago
Underscored — save the words that stop you in your tracks.
