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Within skilled assembly, wire harnesses are perhaps the trickiest to get right, or at least the trickiest that we need a lot of, the trickiest without which nothing else turns on. So if you've been trained to heatseek bottlenecks at the system level and throw everything you've got at them until they're knocked out and you can move on to the next one, then wire harnessing is the logical place to start. And it turns out you can't automate it, yet.

Packy McCormick
2w ago

Geoffrey Hinton, one of the inventors of modern AI, famously predicted the end of human radiologists within a few years, only to see a boom in hiring and salaries for radiologists when it turned out that AI actually complemented their skills. So how the heck are businesspeople and inventors supposed to 'steer' AI toward being complementary to human workers?

2w ago

The implication is clear, and worrisome: employers are increasingly turning to AI systems to do the entry-level work that their junior workers once did. For the moment, that seems to be creating jobs for more senior workers. But what will happen should AI systems be able to do those tasks, too?

2w ago

A company that replaces a billing department with a chatbot interface records lower costs and higher output per worker. The national accounts register a productivity gain. But the hours that patients spend decoding their own tests appear nowhere — not in labour statistics, not in GDP.

3w ago

But the duo figured that if they could generate a massive technical due diligence document for a data center site that would typically take six weeks in just six hours, they could charge $25,000 for it and enjoy margins more like a tech company than a consulting shop. They spun up dozens of agents to handle different tasks; in the initial workflow, one of the founders would email those agents to get PDFs back, and they'd grind long hours to turnaround a finished document for a client. "It looked kind of pathetic, but behind the scenes, a lot of stuff was going on," Stirrat-Ellis says.

4w ago

China's AI enthusiasm seems real. But for a population that lived through the mass layoffs of the 1990s, optimism and fear can look identical from the outside.

1mo ago

It's a striking inversion of the pandemic, when the people who could work from home were the safest — and the essential workers who couldn't were the most exposed. That inversion is also why (like Edwards) Kinder rejects a standard San Francisco answer for AI job loss, which is to skip straight to universal basic income. If everyone gets a check big enough to replace a displaced software engineer's salary, she asks, why would anyone keep showing up to police the streets, build houses, or staff hospitals?

1mo ago

If David Ricardo woke up and somebody told him all those jobs did get automated, and then asked him, 'What do you think the prime-age employment rate is in 2026?', I think he'd be surprised to be told it was the highest it's ever been other than 2000. What David Ricardo ended up missing is that you have these economics of structural change, where everything that got automated became cheap. People had more money to spend, and then they started spending it on services.

1mo ago

But as AI becomes more and more agentic — as we turn over more complex and longer-lasting tasks to intelligent machines — it's going to be harder and harder to keep them aligned with what humans actually want. And if there's one thing humans will always have a comparative advantage at, it's knowing what we want.

2mo ago

I don't think we're going to call them engineers. But if we talk about people writing code, or using agents to write code, I think there will be 100 times more engineers than there are today. That's my prediction.

2mo ago

Agents aren't copilots; they are replacements. They do work in place of humans — think call centers and the like, to start — and they have all of the advantages of software: always available, and scalable up-and-down with demand.

2mo ago

If you or I go and vibe-code something, we think we've replaced the engineer, replaced the accountant, replaced the lawyer. But then you actually look — that was the first 80% of the job. The extra 20%, it turns out, is all the value creation of that profession. All the expertise and domain knowledge is in that last 20%, not the text that got generated.

2mo ago

why judgment becomes more valuable as routine work gets automated, and how to build the prioritization muscle required to move faster, stay focused, and make better decisions when everything is changing.

2mo ago

A core part of JFK's message was that innovation without inclusion is not progress; it is a slow-motion eviction of the American worker from their own economy.

2mo ago

For years, tech companies have asked contractors to behave like machines so that machines can learn to behave like people. Now Meta is asking its own full-time employees, who once occupied the top of the digital labor hierarchy, to do the same.

3mo ago

AI-assisted writing is creeping into newsrooms under the guise of efficiency. But the tradeoff may be more profound than publishers are willing to admit.

3mo ago

There's a crucial difference between asking AI to categorize things repeatedly versus using it to build code that handles structured data through APIs. Yash used OpenClaw to build a Slack digest that pulls notifications via API endpoints—AI built the tool once, but the categorization runs on deterministic code (except for the final action/read/FYI sorting).

3mo ago

So far, AI is replacing tasks, not jobs. Alex Imas and Soumitra Shukla have written that as long as there are a few things that only humans can do, this pattern can be expected to hold.

4mo ago

This Generative AI momentum is creating a lot of optimism around the potential of one person companies or solopreneurs using agentic AI. If Agentic AI works out, small businesses might have a new array of powerful tools as well.

4mo ago

The fact that we call most of the new tasks "services" doesn't change the fact that the set of new human tasks seems to have expanded faster than machines have replaced old ones.

4mo ago

Until now, working with AI has been copy-paste. You take information from one app, paste it into ChatGPT or Claude, get a result, then manually move that result into another app. You're the middleman between AI and the tools you use in your work. Plugins remove you from that role.

4mo ago
stratechery.com
Agents Over Bubbles

In other words, many of the biggest flaws from the original ChatGPT have been substantially mitigated, at least for verifiable use cases like coding: LLMs are much more likely to be right the first time, they reason over their results to increase their chances, and now agents actively verify the results without humans needing to be in the loop.

4mo ago

The deeper problem appears to be that the tech is not a meaningful job creator or increasing productivity outside of a few roles even in technology companies.

4mo ago

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