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stratechery.com
The Inference Shift

What does matter is how long humans are waiting for an answer, and as products like AI wearables become more of a thing, the speed of interaction, particularly for voice — which will be a function of token generation speed — will have a tangible effect on the user experience.

Ben Thompson
1d ago

The reason they believe robots haven't generalized like LLMs isn't that the models aren't smart enough, but that the data has been a fraction of a percent of what humans naturally generate every day, captured through interfaces that distort the very behavior they're trying to record.

4d ago

The displacement force is different this time, impacting cognitive and white-collar work rather than factory floors. But every other element of the structure is remarkably familiar: a powerful disruption, immediate job losses in exposed sectors, and a wave of offsetting gains that keep headline unemployment low.

5d ago

In fact, this shift represents more evolution than revolution. Years ago, Altman did seem to generally agree with the folk consensus that AI's purpose is to make most or all humans obsolete; in 2014 he warned that we could be faced with "a new idle class", and explored the idea of Universal Basic Income as a remedy.

1w ago
ai-supremacy.com
The Landowners of AI

What's becoming more clear is that hyperscalers are the true landowners of AI. They are the custodians and the ones that benefit directly from the demand for compute in more Cloud computing and digital Advertising revenue.

1w ago

The biggest difference is not that OpenClaw can answer questions. Plenty of systems can do that. The more interesting difference is that it can carry context forward in a way that feels less disposable.

1w ago

Those early adopters found, to their surprise, not only that the models were good at puzzles, but that they could help break genuinely new ground. Soon, mathematicians were using AI to discover and prove new results, accomplishing in a day what would have once taken them weeks or months.

3w ago

There's a crucial difference between asking AI to categorize things repeatedly versus using it to build code that handles structured data through APIs. Yash used OpenClaw to build a Slack digest that pulls notifications via API endpoints—AI built the tool once, but the categorization runs on deterministic code (except for the final action/read/FYI sorting).

4w ago

Cybersecurity is inherently adversarial; if attackers use a very powerful AI coding model to hack, defenders probably have to use a model that's equally good or better to defend — and vice versa. This can lead to an arms race where neither side can afford not to shell out big bucks for the latest and greatest model they can get their hands on.

4w ago

However, a point I make on Sharp Tech is that Anthropic's exponential growth includes the part of the curve everyone misses: the company has been on this once-barely-visible trajectory for nearly two years now. Now the company has what is undoubtedly the most powerful model in the world, so powerful, in fact, that Anthropic says it can't release it publicly. There's reason for cynicism, given Anthropic's history, but the part of the "Boy Cries Wolf" myth everyone forgets is that the wolf did come in the end.

4w ago

What Arc and the OpenAI Foundation are doing is what private capital and motivated foundations can do that institutional science usually can't: pick a hard problem, fund a full-stack experimental-and-AI engine, and run the loop fast enough that we might actually get somewhere by the time it matters to my family.

4w ago

As global data-center power consumption (the energy for AI Infra) is expected to roughly double to nearly 1,000 terawatt-hours by the end of the decade, according to an estimate by the International Energy Agency, solar arrays in space, on the Moon, around the Moon beaming energy back to earth isn't as crazy as it sounds.

1mo ago

Basically, none of these groups thinks that any amount of AI capabilities will enable economic take-off. To me, that suggests that they're thinking — perhaps subconsciously — about something more than just friction and slow adoption. One possibility — which I should write about more — is that people suspect that humanity is getting satisfied, at least in the developed countries, and that the amount of new valuable things that even a godlike AI could create for us is limited by our inability to desire more goods and services.

1mo ago
oneusefulthing.org
The Shape of the Thing

This is an era of managing AIs, rather than working with them. This new approach to AI is the outcome of the rapid exponential improvement in AI abilities. That means you can't understand where we are, and where we might be going, without understanding the increasing capability of AI.

1mo ago

If you wanted more evidence that AI is changing everything, look no further than Arm: the company was famous for its high margin IP-licensing business model, but this week announced that instead of (just) facilitating other company's making chips, it would start making and selling chips itself.

1mo ago

Over the past fifty years, the U.S. economy built a giant rent-extraction layer on top of human limitations: things take time, patience runs out, brand familiarity substitutes for diligence, and most people are willing to accept a bad price to avoid more clicks. Trillions of dollars of enterprise value depended on those constraints persisting.

1mo ago

We shouldn't seek to quell AI anxiety, we should embrace and analyze it. The truth is, the U.S. labor market is in serious trouble, and it has little to do with AI so far.

1mo ago

There could be more complex patterns in nature — too complex for a human to hold in their mind, or even notice in the first place, but stable and useful nonetheless. What if there are other complex-but-useful patterns in other domains, like materials science and biology? If they exist, I think AI will be able to find them and apply them.

1mo ago

Agents are fundamentally changing the shape of demand for compute, both in terms of how they work and in terms of who will use them. They're so compelling that I no longer believe we're in a bubble.

1mo ago
oneusefulthing.org
The Shape of the Thing

This new approach to AI is the outcome of the rapid exponential improvement in AI abilities. That means you can't understand where we are, and where we might be going, without understanding the increasing capability of AI.

2mo ago

Like almost everyone in the AI model-making industry, Anthropic's employees believe that they are literally creating a god, and that this god will come into its full existence sooner rather than later.

2mo ago

Because of this change, you have to consider three things when deciding what AI to use: Models, Apps, and Harnesses. Models are the underlying AI brains, and the big three are GPT-5.2/5.3, Claude Opus 4.6, and Gemini 3 Pro (the companies are releasing new models much more rapidly than the past, so version numbers may change in the coming weeks).

2mo ago

Advanced autonomy, improved sensors, millions of miles more experience, integrated software and embedded AI have all improved considerably in the last decade.

2mo ago

Because of this change, you have to consider three things when deciding what AI to use: Models, Apps, and Harnesses. Models are the underlying AI brains, and the big three are GPT-5.2/5.3, Claude Opus 4.6, and Gemini 3 Pro. These are what determine how smart the system is, how well it reasons, how good it is at writing or coding or analyzing a spreadsheet, and how well it can see images or create them.

2mo ago

Advanced autonomy, improved sensors, millions of miles more experience, integrated software and embedded AI have all improved considerably in the last decade. That world of robots, delivery drones, robo-taxis and consumer ambient intelligence: well, it's finally coming.

2mo ago

Because of this change, you have to consider three things when deciding what AI to use: Models, Apps, and Harnesses. Models are the underlying AI brains, and the big three are GPT-5.2/5.3, Claude Opus 4.6, and Gemini 3 Pro.

2mo ago

Now the same model can behave very differently depending on what harness it's operating in. Claude Opus 4.6 talking to you in a chat window is a very different experience from Claude Opus 4.6 operating inside Claude Code, autonomously writing and testing software for hours at a stretch.

2mo ago

Until a few months ago, for the vast majority of people, "using AI" meant talking to a chatbot in a back-and-forth conversation. But over the past few months, it has become practical to use AI as an agent: you can assign them to a task and they do them, using tools as appropriate.

2mo ago

What if AI is not a great collaborator like we are being promised that empowers, but a great destroyer?

2mo ago

Underscored — save the words that stop you in your tracks.

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