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The chains of habit are too light to be felt until they are too heavy to be broken. Most investors underestimate how much their early portfolio habits — the things they barely notice doing — compound into the architecture of their entire financial life.

Warren Buffett, 1989 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Letter (1989)
14h ago

Most people think of risk as the probability of losing money. But the real risk is that you'll be forced to sell at the wrong time — that circumstances, not judgment, will determine your outcome. Volatility is only dangerous if it can compel you to act.

1d ago

The best investment you can make is in businesses you understand, and the second-best is in your own ability to understand more businesses. Most investors do neither — they buy what's rising and call it research.

2d ago

He essentially turned $200 million into $45 billion in two years, given back in a month and I'm not even clear what's left or what's next.

2d ago

Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years. But the subtler error is assuming the next ten years will look like the last ten — the truly dangerous assumption for any investor or builder.

1w ago

Leverage is the difference between outcomes in a world that looks similar on the surface. Two investors can have the same insight, the same conviction, and the same patience — but the one who sized correctly will retire while the other merely survives. Position sizing is not a detail; it is the strategy.

2w ago

Consumers, conditioned by heavy promotion and by habit, did not bolt even as prices of some of their favorite soaps and cereals increased by 5% or 8% a year. And so profits increased much faster than that. Heinz's earnings climbed by an average of 13% a year during the past decade, Clorox's by 15%. Their shareholders and owners reaped a treasure.

2w ago

The chains of habit are too light to be felt until they are too heavy to be broken. A young person who consistently saves a small amount will find, decades later, that the habit has built a fortress; a young person who defers saving will find the habit of spending has built a prison.

3w ago

For five and a half years, David Senra read one business biography a week, recorded a podcast about it, and published each episode to almost no one. Today, Founders is a cult obsession among some of the world's most powerful CEOs and billionaires, and a one-man business generating millions in annual profit.

3w ago

The biggest mistake investors make is to believe that what happened in the recent past is likely to persist. They assume that something that was a good investment in the recent past is still a good investment. Typically, high past returns simply imply that an asset has become more expensive and is a less compelling investment.

3w ago

It took Einstein, one of the most famous minds in history, about a decade to figure it out. But when I teach it I'll do a 10-week course, and in 10 weeks people will get a better idea of general relativity than Einstein really had in 10 years. That's because we have an advantage that Einstein didn't have. We have Einstein, and many others like him going before us, who've been able to take these super complicated ideas—understood at the time as being totally incomprehensible by anybody with a sub-Einstein level of intelligence—and boil them down to their essentials, and not make many of the same mistakes that were made by our forebears.

3w ago

The burden of supporting the elderly will also probably reduce fertility even further — it's hard supporting kids and your retired parents at the same time! — which will compound the problem in the long term.

4w ago

Consumers, conditioned by heavy promotion and by habit, did not bolt even as prices of some of their favorite soaps and cereals increased by 5% or 8% a year. And so profits increased much faster than that. Heinz's earnings climbed by an average of 13% a year during the past decade, Clorox's by 15%.

1mo ago

The trick is to keep learning. If you stop learning, other people will pass you by. Temperament alone won't do it — you have to keep learning, because the world keeps changing, and you have to keep up with it and even get ahead of it.

1mo ago

The best business returns are usually achieved by companies that are doing something quite similar today to what they were doing five or ten years ago. That is no accident.

1mo ago

Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years. But the deeper error is that they plan in one-year chunks at all — the unit of compounding is decades, not quarters.

1mo ago

The difference between a good business and a bad business is that good businesses throw up one easy decision after another. The bad businesses throw up painful decisions time after time.

1mo ago

The biggest mistake investors make is to believe that what happened in the recent past is likely to persist. They assume that something that was a good investment in the recent past is still a good investment. Typically, high past returns simply imply that an asset has become more expensive and is a poorer, not better, investment.

1mo ago

The ability to sit quietly and patiently while everyone else is acting is not a passive virtue — it is the hardest-won competitive advantage in investing. Most of the damage investors do to themselves comes from the compulsion to do something when the right action is nothing.

1mo ago

The lesson of history is that there have always been more buyers of stability than sellers of it. When uncertainty rises, the price of certainty rises with it — and those willing to sell certainty at that moment earn returns that compound for decades.

1mo ago

The biggest moat a business can have is not technology, not patents, not brand — it's the accumulated trust of customers who would feel genuine loss if you disappeared. Trust is the only asset that appreciates purely through use and deteriorates purely through neglect.

1mo ago

Most people think of risk as the probability of losing money. But the real risk is behaving in a way today that prevents you from being in the game tomorrow. Permanent impairment of capital is far less common than permanent impairment of judgment under pressure.

1mo ago

The greatest competitive advantage in business is a long time horizon. Almost all of the gains in any market come from people willing to wait longer than everyone else is willing to wait, and almost nobody is structurally set up to do that.

1mo ago

The market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient. But what most people miss is that patience isn't passive — it requires the active courage to hold while everything around you screams sell.

2mo ago

Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years. The long-term compounder who does nothing dramatic usually beats the person executing a brilliant short-term strategy.

2mo ago

The best investment is in the business that compounds the fastest while requiring the least capital. Most people think about return on capital. They should think about return on capital per unit of risk taken.

2mo ago

The difference between a good business and a great business is that a good business earns a fair return on capital employed, but a great business earns exceptional returns on capital while reinvesting at those same exceptional rates.

2mo ago

The big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting. Patience is the virtue that is most rewarded in investing.

2mo ago

I've always thought it's so cool that the smartest person in the world on a topic I care about spends 2+ years of their life distilling their best ideas into an enjoyable read, and I can get this for just $20.

2mo ago

Right now, the national debt continues to explode, because the government is borrowing money just to pay the interest on the money it borrowed before. This increased debt naturally results in even greater interest costs, forcing the government to borrow even more to fund those interest payments. And so on.

2mo ago

The best thing you can do is compound money at high rates of return for a long time. That's the game. Most people don't understand that the biggest returns come from sitting, not trading.

2mo ago

The best investment is in the business that compounds the fastest while requiring the least capital to do so. Most people focus on the numerator and ignore the denominator.

2mo ago

The best way to get smart is to try to be a little smarter than you were the day before. But the way to get rich is to try to be a little richer than you were the day before.

2mo ago

The difference between a great business and a mediocre one is often that the great business keeps compounding capital at high rates of return for decades, while the mediocre business cannot. Most people underestimate how powerful this difference becomes over time.

2mo ago

The best investment is in the business that compounds the fastest while requiring the least reinvestment. Most people focus on the first part and ignore the second, which is why they end up with businesses that eat cash.

2mo ago

The big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting. You have to be willing to let your profits run and cut your losses short.

2mo ago

The best thing a company can do is compound capital efficiently over a long period of time. Everything else is details.

3mo ago

The big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting. You have to be willing to hold. Most people aren't.

3mo ago

The difference between investment success and mediocrity is often not intelligence—it's the ability to do nothing when nothing should be done. Most investors feel compelled to act, when the great fortunes are made by inaction.

3mo ago

The big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting. You have to sit on your ass and do nothing.

3mo ago

The best thing a company can do is compound capital efficiently over a long period of time. That's what creates shareholder value. Most companies don't do it because they're distracted by quarterly earnings, acquisitions that destroy value, or just bad capital allocation decisions.

3mo ago

Its power, like that of Bach's series of variations, accumulates slowly, moment by moment. By the end, as the original theme returns, you are left with the feeling of having experienced a great arc, a fully realized idea explored in all its possibilities and permutations.

3mo ago

The best thing a company can do is compound capital efficiently over decades. Everything else is noise.

3mo ago

The difference between a business that compounds and one that doesn't is often not the talent of the founder, but the defensibility of the moat—and most founders underestimate how much time it takes to build one.

3mo ago

The difference between a business that compounds and one that doesn't is often not the brilliance of the idea, but the willingness to accept small returns for decades while reinvesting everything. Most people can't do this psychologically.

3mo ago

The best thing a company can do is compound capital efficiently over decades. But the second-best thing is to be so boring that people forget to worry about you.

3mo ago

The best investment is in yourself. But the second-best investment is often in things that are so obvious and so important that nobody is paying attention to them because everyone assumes someone else is handling it.

3mo ago

However, a point I make on Sharp Tech is that Anthropic's exponential growth includes the part of the curve everyone misses: the company has been on this once-barely-visible trajectory for nearly two years now. Now the company has what is undoubtedly the most powerful model in the world, so powerful, in fact, that Anthropic says it can't release it publicly. There's reason for cynicism, given Anthropic's history, but the part of the "Boy Cries Wolf" myth everyone forgets is that the wolf did come in the end.

3mo ago

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