The thing that I've learned over time is that the most important question is not 'is this technology real?' but rather 'what is the rate of improvement, and how does that rate of improvement compare to what the market is pricing in?' Because technologies that are real can still be terrible investments if the market has already priced in a lot of the improvement.
You might also like
The care and intentionality is beside the point, and our confidence in such vigilance probably works against us in the long run. 'The teams using AI most carefully are the ones losing the ability to tell a good option from a merely safe one. The malformation doesn't skip the diligent. It recruits them.'
Michael
The most interesting idea is that countries become great powers due to their mastery of the most important technologies of the day — gunpowder, sailing ships, steam power, mass production, steel, the combustion engine, industrial chemicals, electricity, airplanes, and so on. It's also possible to imagine that leading nations fall behind due to technological disruption. Britain's industrial revolution made mercantile trade less pivotal as a source of national wealth, so the Netherlands fell behind.
Noah Smith
Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years. But the deeper error is that they plan in one-year chunks at all — the unit of compounding is decades, not quarters.
Jeff Bezos — Amazon Shareholder Letter